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Modeling Stochastic Crop Yield Expectations with a Limiting Beta Distribution

  • Hennessy, David A.

The use of plausible stochastic price processes in price risk analysis has allowed advances not seen in crop yield risk analysis. This study develops a stochastic process for yield modeling and risk management. The Pólya urn process is an internally consistent dynamic representation of yield expectations over a growing season that accommodates agronomic events such as growing degree days. The limiting distribution is the commonly used beta distribution. Binomial tree analysis of the process allows us to explore hedging decisions and crop valuation. The method is empirically flexible to accommodate alternative assumptions on the growing environment, such as intra-season input decisions.

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File URL: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/sites/default/files/publications/papers/p15020-2012-03-29.pdf
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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 35020.

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Date of creation: 29 Mar 2012
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 2011, vol. 36 no. 1, pp. 177-191
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:35020
Contact details of provider: Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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  1. Weninger, Quinn & Just, Richard E., 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," Staff General Research Papers 5064, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Octavio A. Ram�rez & Tanya McDonald, 2006. "Ranking Crop Yield Models: A Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1105-1110.
  3. Jean-Daniel M. Saphores, 2000. "The Economic Threshold with a Stochastic Pest Population: A Real Options Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 541-555.
  4. Jutta Roosen & David A. Hennessy, 2003. "Tests for the Role of Risk Aversion on Input Use," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 30-43.
  5. Joseph Atwood & Saleem Shaik & Myles Watts, 2003. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed? A Reexamination," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 888-901.
  6. Babcock, Bruce A. & Hennessy, David A., 1996. "Input Demand Under Yield and Revenue Insurance," Staff General Research Papers 794, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Barnett, Barry J., 2004. "Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(03), December.
  8. Antle, John M. & Capalbo, Susan Marie & Crissman, Charles C., 1994. "Econometric Production Models With Endogenous Input Timing: An Application To Ecuadorian Potato Production," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(01), July.
  9. Jerry R. Skees & Jason Hartell & Anne G. Murphy, 2007. "Using Index-Based Risk Transfer Products to Facilitate Micro Lending in Peru and Vietnam," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1255-1261.
  10. Robert Innes, 2003. "Crop Insurance in a Political Economy: An Alternative Perspective on Agricultural Policy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 318-335.
  11. Oliver Musshoff, 2008. "Indifference Pricing of Weather Derivatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 979-993.
  12. Vincent H. Smith & Barry K. Goodwin, 1996. "Crop Insurance, Moral Hazard, and Agricultural Chemical Use," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 428-438.
  13. Roger Claassen & Richard E. Just, 2010. "Heterogeneity and Distributional Form of Farm-Level Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(1), pages 144-160.
  14. Hennessy, David A., 2009. "Crop Yield Skewness and the Normal Distribution," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
  15. Woodard, Joshua D. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "Weather Derivatives, Spatial Aggregation, and Systemic Risk: Implications for Reinsurance Hedging," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(01), April.
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