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The Impact of Financial Crises on Trade Flows: A Developing Country Perspective


  • Macias, Jose Brambila
  • Massa, Isabella
  • Salois, Matthew J.


The global financial crisis has hit hard international trade that dropped below levels not seen since the Great Depression with disastrous consequences for the developing world. This paper estimates an extended gravity model of trade on a sample of 83 developing countries over the period 1990-2007 to shed light on how banking crises and global economic downturns affect bilateral exports flows from developing countries. In addition to traditional variables, we include a trade finance variable and foreign aid among the regressors. Differences between developing regions are taken into account. Our results show that (i) trade finance has a positive and significant impact on bilateral export flows in all developing regions except Latin America; (ii) foreign aid matters in all regions; (iii) global economic downturns exert a negative and significant impact on export flows in all developing countries, and especially in Latin American and Sub-Saharan African economies; (iv) banking crises appear to have no significant impact in most regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Macias, Jose Brambila & Massa, Isabella & Salois, Matthew J., 2010. "The Impact of Financial Crises on Trade Flows: A Developing Country Perspective," 84th Annual Conference, March 29-31, 2010, Edinburgh, Scotland 91831, Agricultural Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc10:91831

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram, 2008. "The real effect of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 89-112, January.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Gian & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Sharp reductions in current account deficits An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 897-908, May.
    4. Chauffour, Jean-Pierre & Saborowski, Christian & Soylemezoglu, Ahmet I., 2010. "Trade finance in crisis : should developing countries establish export credit agencies ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5166, The World Bank.
    5. Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann & Thierry Verdier, 2007. "Aid and trade," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 481-507, Autumn.
    6. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Stephan Klasen & Mario Larch, 2009. "Does German Development Aid Promote German Exports?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 317-338, August.
    7. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
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    More about this item


    Banking Crises; Developing Countries; Foreign Aid; Global Downturn; International Trade; Trade Finance; Mixed Effects Panel Data; Random Coefficients.; Agricultural and Food Policy; C23; F11; F12; F34; F35; G01.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid

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