Tariffs in Agriculture: Have Trade Agreements Contributed to Agricutural Sustainability?

This paper studies the effects of tariff schemes on the absolute and relative emissions embodied in agricultural imports across countries and commodities. Between 2001 and 2017, shifts in the global agricultural trade structure drove an increase in emissions embodied in imports; preferential margins widened under proliferating preferential trade agreements; and reductions in agricultural import tariffs were associated with increased trade flows. Building on these patterns, we employ a structural gravity framework to quantify the general equilibrium effects of two counterfactual tariff schemes: the universal adoption of most-favored-nation (MFN) rates and a transition to global free trade. Given the significance of relative emissions embodied in trade as a critical directional indicator, the paper finds that universal MFN rates reorient agricultural sourcing toward carbon-intensive exporters, while the abolition of tariffs shifts the trade structure toward suppliers with lower emissions intensities in agricultural production. However, analysis by importers and commodities uncovers divergent outcomes. These findings suggest that tailored trade policies should account for the specific trade structure of each agricultural product and the economic status of trading partners.