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Regional trade agreement burdens global carbon emissions mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • Kailan Tian

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yu Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yuze Li

    (Boston University)

  • Xi Ming

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shangrong Jiang

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Hongbo Duan

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Cuihong Yang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shouyang Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Regional trade agreements (RTAs) have been widely adopted to facilitate international trade and cross-border investment and promote economic development. However, ex ante measurements of the environmental effects of RTAs to date have not been well conducted. Here, we estimate the CO2 emissions burdens of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) after evaluating its economic effects. We find that trade among RCEP member countries will increase significantly and economic output will expand with the reduction of regional tariffs. However, the results show that complete tariff elimination among RCEP members would increase the yearly global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by about 3.1%, doubling the annual average growth rate of global CO2 emissions in the last decade. The emissions in some developing members will surge. In the longer run, the burdens can be lessened to some extent by the technological spillover effects of deeper trade liberalization. We stress that technological advancement and more effective climate policies are urgently required to avoid undermining international efforts to reduce global emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kailan Tian & Yu Zhang & Yuze Li & Xi Ming & Shangrong Jiang & Hongbo Duan & Cuihong Yang & Shouyang Wang, 2022. "Regional trade agreement burdens global carbon emissions mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28004-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28004-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baldwin, Richard & Jaimovich, Dany, 2012. "Are Free Trade Agreements contagious?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 1-16.
    2. Qiang Zhang & Xujia Jiang & Dan Tong & Steven J. Davis & Hongyan Zhao & Guannan Geng & Tong Feng & Bo Zheng & Zifeng Lu & David G. Streets & Ruijing Ni & Michael Brauer & Aaron van Donkelaar & Randall, 2017. "Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade," Nature, Nature, vol. 543(7647), pages 705-709, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard & Manchin, Miriam, 2022. "Pursuing Environmental and Social Objectives through Trade Agreements," Papers 1377, World Trade Institute.
    2. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Peterson, Sonja & Wanner, Joschka, 2022. "The impact of trade and trade policy on the environment and the climate: A review," Kiel Working Papers 2233, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Yuquan W. Zhang & Yong Geng & Bin Zhang & Shaohua Yang & David V. Izikowitz & Haitao Yin & Fei Wu & Haishan Yu & Huiwen Liu & Weiduo Zhou, 2023. "Examining industrial air pollution embodied in trade: implications of a hypothetical China-UK FTA," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 13253-13279, November.
    4. Lijun Li, 2023. "Big data visualisation in regional comprehensive economic partnership: a systematic review," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Menghan Zhang & Suocheng Dong & Fujia Li & Shuangjie Xu & Kexin Guo & Qian Liu, 2022. "Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Improvement Measures of Embodied Carbon Emissions in Interprovincial Trade for Coal Energy Supply Bases: Case Study of Anhui, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Nejati, Mehdi & Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim, 2023. "How does ICT trade shape environmental impacts across the north-south regions? Intra-regional and Inter-regional perspective from dynamic CGE model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    7. Zhang, Yu & Tian, Kailan & Li, Xiaomeng & Jiang, Xuemei & Yang, Cuihong, 2022. "From globalization to regionalization? Assessing its potential environmental and economic effects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    8. Jeremiás Máté Balogh & Tamás Mizik, 2023. "Global Impacts of Climate Policy and Trade Agreements on Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, February.

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