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Tarnishing Silver Bullets: Bt Technology Adoption, Bounded Rationality and the Outbreak of Secondary Pest Infestations in China

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  • Just, David R.
  • Wang, Shenghui
  • Pinstrup-Andersen, Per

Abstract

As with other technologies, adoption of Bt seed requires technology specific knowledge. Growing secondary pest populations have slowly eroded the benefits of Bt technology in China. We illustrate the effects of introducing Bt technology among farmers with an imperfect knowledge of secondary pest problems using a simple dynamic model. The stochastic dominance tests based on primary household data from 1999-2001 and 2004 in China provide strong evidence that secondary pests, if unanticipated, could completely erode all benefits from Bt cotton cultivation. Our empirical tests also suggest that planting refuge concurrent with Bt adoption provides for the sustainable development of Bt technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Just, David R. & Wang, Shenghui & Pinstrup-Andersen, Per, 2006. "Tarnishing Silver Bullets: Bt Technology Adoption, Bounded Rationality and the Outbreak of Secondary Pest Infestations in China," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21230, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21230
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.21230
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    Cited by:

    1. Pemsl, Diemuth E. & Gutierrez, Andrew P. & Waibel, Hermann, 2008. "The economics of biotechnology under ecosystem disruption," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 177-183, May.
    2. Raney, Terri & Matuschke, Ira, 2010. "Genetically Modified Crops In Developing Countries: Back To The Future," 14th ICABR Conference, June 16-18, 2010, Ravello, Italy 188106, International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR).
    3. Elaine Meichen Liu, 2008. "Time to Change What to Sow: Risk Preferences and Technology Adoption Decisions of Cotton Farmers in China," Working Papers 1064, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    4. Guiyan Wang & Michel Fok, 2014. "Farmer and Market Interactions in using Biotech Cotton Varieties and Seed. A Case in Northern China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(5), pages 696-714, May.
    5. Soleri, Daniela & Cleveland, David A. & Glasgow, Garrett & Sweeney, Stuart H. & Cuevas, Flavio Aragón & Fuentes, Mario R. & Ríos L., Humberto, 2008. "Testing assumptions underlying economic research on transgenic food crops for Third World farmers: Evidence from Cuba, Guatemala and Mexico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 667-682, November.
    6. Cook, Brian R. & Satizábal, Paula & Curnow, Jayne, 2021. "Humanising agricultural extension: A review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Pemsl, D. & Waibel, H., 2007. "Assessing the profitability of different crop protection strategies in cotton: Case study results from Shandong Province, China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-3), pages 28-36, December.
    8. Michael Stahlman & Laura McCann, 2012. "Technology characteristics, choice architecture, and farmer knowledge: the case of phytase," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 29(3), pages 371-379, September.
    9. Liu, Elaine M. & Huang, JiKun, 2013. "Risk preferences and pesticide use by cotton farmers in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 202-215.
    10. Elaine M. Liu, 2013. "Time to Change What to Sow: Risk Preferences and Technology Adoption Decisions of Cotton Farmers in China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1386-1403, October.

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