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Tarnishing Silver Bullets: Bt Technology Adoption, Bounded Rationality and the Outbreak of Secondary Pest Infestations in China

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  • Just, David R.
  • Wang, Shenghui
  • Pinstrup-Andersen, Per

Abstract

As with other technologies, adoption of Bt seed requires technology specific knowledge. Growing secondary pest populations have slowly eroded the benefits of Bt technology in China. We illustrate the effects of introducing Bt technology among farmers with an imperfect knowledge of secondary pest problems using a simple dynamic model. The stochastic dominance tests based on primary household data from 1999-2001 and 2004 in China provide strong evidence that secondary pests, if unanticipated, could completely erode all benefits from Bt cotton cultivation. Our empirical tests also suggest that planting refuge concurrent with Bt adoption provides for the sustainable development of Bt technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Just, David R. & Wang, Shenghui & Pinstrup-Andersen, Per, 2006. "Tarnishing Silver Bullets: Bt Technology Adoption, Bounded Rationality and the Outbreak of Secondary Pest Infestations in China," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21230, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21230
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
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    3. Boggess, William G. & Cardelli, Dino J. & Barfield, C.S., 1985. "A Bioeconomic Simulation Approach To Multi-Species Insect Management," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(02), December.
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    6. Michael J. Livingston & Gerald A. Carlson & Paul L. Fackler, 2004. "Managing Resistance Evolution in Two Pests to Two Toxins with Refugia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 1-13.
    7. Schultz, Theodore W, 1975. "The Value of the Ability to Deal with Disequilibria," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 827-846, September.
    8. Matin Qaim & Alain de Janvry, 2003. "Genetically Modified Crops, Corporate Pricing Strategies, and Farmers' Adoption: The Case of Bt Cotton in Argentina," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 814-828.
    9. Katherine H. Reichelderfer & Filmore E. Bender, 1979. "Application of a Simulative Approach to Evaluating Alternative Methods for the Control of Agricultural Pests," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(2), pages 258-267.
    10. Boggess, William G. & Cardelli, Dino J. & Barfield, C. S., 1985. "A Bioeconomic Simulation Approach to Multi-Species Insect Management," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 43-56, December.
    11. Feder, G. & Regev, U., 1975. "Biological interactions and environmental effects in the economics of pest control," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 75-91, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Soleri, Daniela & Cleveland, David A. & Glasgow, Garrett & Sweeney, Stuart H. & Cuevas, Flavio Aragón & Fuentes, Mario R. & Ríos L., Humberto, 2008. "Testing assumptions underlying economic research on transgenic food crops for Third World farmers: Evidence from Cuba, Guatemala and Mexico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 667-682, November.
    2. Pemsl, D. & Waibel, H., 2007. "Assessing the profitability of different crop protection strategies in cotton: Case study results from Shandong Province, China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-3), pages 28-36, December.
    3. Liu, Elaine M. & Huang, JiKun, 2013. "Risk preferences and pesticide use by cotton farmers in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 202-215.
    4. Pemsl, Diemuth E. & Gutierrez, Andrew P. & Waibel, Hermann, 2008. "The economics of biotechnology under ecosystem disruption," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, pages 177-183.

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