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Tarnishing Silver Bullets: Bt Technology Adoption, Bounded Rationality and the Outbreak of Secondary Pest Infestations in China

  • Just, David R.
  • Wang, Shenghui
  • Pinstrup-Andersen, Per

As with other technologies, adoption of Bt seed requires technology specific knowledge. Growing secondary pest populations have slowly eroded the benefits of Bt technology in China. We illustrate the effects of introducing Bt technology among farmers with an imperfect knowledge of secondary pest problems using a simple dynamic model. The stochastic dominance tests based on primary household data from 1999-2001 and 2004 in China provide strong evidence that secondary pests, if unanticipated, could completely erode all benefits from Bt cotton cultivation. Our empirical tests also suggest that planting refuge concurrent with Bt adoption provides for the sustainable development of Bt technology.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21230
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Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA with number 21230.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21230
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  1. Schultz, Theodore W, 1975. "The Value of the Ability to Deal with Disequilibria," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 827-46, September.
  2. Boggess, William G. & Cardelli, Dino J. & Barfield, C.S., 1985. "A Bioeconomic Simulation Approach To Multi-Species Insect Management," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(02), December.
  3. repec:cpi:cpijrn:6.1.2010:i=5496 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Matin Qaim & Alain de Janvry, 2003. "Genetically Modified Crops, Corporate Pricing Strategies, and Farmers' Adoption: The Case of Bt Cotton in Argentina," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 814-828.
  5. Michael J. Livingston & Gerald A. Carlson & Paul L. Fackler, 2004. "Managing Resistance Evolution in Two Pests to Two Toxins with Refugia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 1-13.
  6. Simon, Herbert A, 1978. "Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 1-16, May.
  7. Feder, G. & Regev, U., 1975. "Biological interactions and environmental effects in the economics of pest control," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 75-91, December.
  8. Ragozin, David L. & Brown, Gardner Jr., 1985. "Harvest policies and nonmarket valuation in a predator -- prey system," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 155-168, June.
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