Cisil Sarisoy

Personal Details

First Name:	Cisil
Middle Name:
Last Name:	Sarisoy
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RePEc Short-ID:	psa1828
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	https://sites.google.com/site/cisilsarisoy/home

Affiliation

Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Washington, District of Columbia (United States)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/
RePEc:edi:frbgvus (more details at EDIRC)

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

1. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Deepa Dhume Datta & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Olesya V. Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Juan M. Londono & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez & J, 2020. "What is Certain about Uncertainty?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1294, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
   • Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.

   Cited by:

   1. Massimo Guidolin, Serena Ionta, 2026. "Uncertain Climate Policy as a Source of Macro-Financial Shocks: Evidence from Carbon Futures Volatility," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 26262, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
   2. Lutfu S. Sua & Haibo Wang & Jun Huang, 2025. "Spatiotemporal Impact of Trade Policy Variables on Asian Manufacturing Hubs: Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression Model," Papers 2503.17790, arXiv.org.
   3. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
      • Mirela Miescu & Raffaele Rossi, 2020. "COVID-19-Induced Shocks and Uncertainty," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2013, Economics, The University of Manchester, revised Aug 2021.
   4. Martin Hodula & Jan Janku & Simona Malovana & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2024. "Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Global Macro-Financial Stability: Literature and Measurements," Working Papers 2024/8, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
      • Hodula, Martin & Janků, Jan & Malovaná, Simona & Ngo, Ngoc Anh, 2024. "Geopolitical risks and their impact on global macro-financial stability: Literature and measurements," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
   5. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Disentangling the Effects of Uncertainty, Monetary Policy and Leverage Shocks on the Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1029-1065, October.
   6. Mumtaz, Haroon & Ruch, Franz Ulrich, 2023. "Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations : Evidence from Emerging and Developed Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10564, The World Bank.
   7. Keijsers, Bart & van Dijk, Dick, 2025. "Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real time?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 748-762.
      • Bart Keijsers & Dick van Dijk, 2022. "Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real-time?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-069/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Mar 2023.
   8. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
      • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," CEPR Discussion Papers 14398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Code and data files for "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research"," Computer Codes 20-250, Review of Economic Dynamics.
      • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," NBER Working Papers 26768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   9. d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "Uncertainty of Supply Chains: Risk and Ambiguity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2024/03, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
      • d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "Uncertainty of supply chains: Risk and ambiguity," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 2009-2033, May.
      • d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "Uncertainty of Supply Chains: Risk and Ambiguity," Papers 2405.03451, arXiv.org.
   10. Kim, Junhyong, 2025. "The impact of external uncertainty shocks on the Korean economy," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 47(1), pages 19-66.
   11. Max Breitenlechner & Georgios Georgiadis & Ben Schumann, 2021. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_003, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
       • Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
       • Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Working Paper Series 2613, European Central Bank.
       • Max Breitenlechner & Georgios Georgiadis & Ben Schumann, 2021. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Working Papers 2021-05, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
   12. Michael D. Bauer & Travis J. Berge & Giuseppe Fiori & Francesca Loria & Molin Zhong, 2025. "Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
       • Michael D. Bauer & Travis J. Berge & Giuseppe Fiori & Francesca Loria & Molin Zhong, 2025. "Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2025-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
   13. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
   14. Carlos Canizares Martinez & Arne Gieseck, 2024. "The effects of macro uncertainty shocks in the euro area: A FAVAR approach," Working and Discussion Papers WP 6/2024, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
       • Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Arne Gieseck, 2025. "The effects of macro uncertainty shocks in the euro area: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(6), pages 2829-2872, June.
   15. Baxa, Jaromir & Buliskeria, Nino & Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Havrankova, Zuzana & Kundu, Suranjana, 2023. "A comment on Bauer, Lakdawala, Mueller: Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty (2022)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 77, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
   16. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2025. "US uncertainty shocks, credit, production, and prices: The case of fourteen Latin American countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
       • Carlos Giraldo & Iader Giraldo & Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe, 2023. ""US uncertainty shocks, credit, production, and prices: The case of fourteen Latin American countries"," IREA Working Papers 202302, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2023.
       • Iader Giraldo & Carlos Giraldo & Jos� E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Mario Uribe, 2023. "US uncertainty shocks, credit, production, and prices: The case of fourteen Latin American countries," Documentos de trabajo 20667, FLAR.
   17. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2025. "Energy in turmoil: Industry resilience to uncertainty during the global energy crisis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 389(C).
   18. Taniya Ghosh & Yadavindu Ajit, 2023. "Central bank transparency, the role of institutions and inflation persistence," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-012, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
   19. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Matthys, Felix & Osambela, Emilio & Sircar, Ronnie, 2025. "When uncertainty and volatility are disconnected: Implications for asset pricing and portfolio performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
   20. Ferreira, Thiago R.T., 2024. "Cross-sectional financial conditions, business cycles and the lending channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
   21. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
   22. Jiang, Fuwei & Kang, Jie & Meng, Lingchao, 2024. "Certainty of uncertainty for asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
   23. Rahaman, Shafeeq Ur & Abdul, Mahe Jabeen, 2025. "Quantifying uncertainty in economics policy predictions: A Bayesian & Monte Carlo based data-driven approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
   24. Iania, Leonardo & Nguyen, P. Thao & Smedts, Kristien, 2025. "Stock returns and macroeconomic uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
   25. Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2020. "Subjective Uncertainty, Expectations, and Firm Behavior," MPRA Paper 103516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
       • Stefan Lautenbacher, 2021. "Subjective Uncertainty, Expectations, and Firm Behavior," ifo Working Paper Series 349, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
   26. Michal Franta & Jan Vlcek, 2025. "Inflation at Risk: The Czech Case," Working Papers 2025/8, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
   27. Takeshi Shinohara & Tatsushi Okuda & Jouchi Nakajima, 2020. "Characteristics of Uncertainty Indices in the Macroeconomy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-6, Bank of Japan.
       • Shinohara, Takeshi & Okuda, Tatsushi & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2021. "Characteristics of Uncertainty Indices in the Macroeconomy," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 72(3), pages 246-267, July.
   28. Dovern, Jonas & Glas, Alexander, 2025. "Uncertainty and rounding in expectation surveys," Discussion Papers 22/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
   29. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Survey-Based Economic Uncertainty Indicators Between Different Agents and Across Variables," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, April.
   30. Gao, Huasheng & Wang, Yuxi, 2025. "Tariff uncertainty and the cost of debt: Evidence from United States–China permanent normal trade relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
   31. Jongrim Ha & Ergys Islamaj & Aaditya Mattoo, 2024. "Implications of Heightened Global Uncertainty for the East Asia and Pacific Region," World Bank Publications - Reports 42090, The World Bank Group.
   32. Marco Flaccadoro & Stefania Villa, 2025. "Global risk aversion and the term premium gap in emerging market economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1493, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
   33. Marco Brianti, 2021. "Financial Shocks, Uncertainty Shocks, and Monetary Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 2021-05, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
   34. Ana Aguilar & Rafael Guerra & Carola Müller & Alexandre Tombini, 2026. "The macro-financial impact of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America," BIS Working Papers 1324, Bank for International Settlements.
   35. Haining Chen & Prince Asare Vitenu-Sackey & Isaac Akpemah Bathuure, 2024. "Uncertainty Measures and Business Cycles: Evidence From the US," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, April.
   36. Berggren, Niclas & Bergh, Andreas & Nilsson, Therese, 2025. "Coming Together or Coming Apart? Crises, Uncertainty and Tolerance," Working Paper Series 1521, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
   37. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia, 2023. "Do commodity markets catch a cold from stock markets? Modelling uncertainty spillovers using Google search trends and wavelet coherence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
   38. Andreas Dibiasi & David Iselin, 2021. "Measuring Knightian uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 2113-2141, October.
       • Andreas Dibiasi, 2021. "Measuring Knightian uncertainty," Post-Print hal-03391638, HAL.
       • David Iselin & Andreas Dibiasi, 2019. "Measuring Knightian Uncertainty," KOF Working papers 19-456, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
   39. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana, 2025. "Economic uncertainty measures, experts and large language models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
   40. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
       • Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Gamze Ozturk Danisman & Ender Demir & Amine Tarazi, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Post-Print hal-04881067, HAL.
       • Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Gamze Ozturk Danisman & Ender Demir & Amine Tarazi, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Working Papers hal-02964579, HAL.
   41. Benjamin Baker & Murat Üngör, 2025. "Effects of Quantitative Easing on Economic Sentiment: Evidence from Three Large Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 67(1), pages 50-83, March.
   42. Martin Iseringhausen & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2025. "A survey-based measure of asymmetric macroeconomic risk in the euro area," Working Papers 68, European Stability Mechanism, revised 11 Feb 2025.
   43. Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Hongkui & Yu, Jiasheng & Zhang, Huajing, 2023. "International stock return predictability: The role of U.S. uncertainty spillover," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
   44. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Felix Matthys & Emilio Osambela & Ronnie Sircar, 2021. "When Uncertainty and Volatility Are Disconnected: Implications for Asset Pricing and Portfolio Performance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
       • Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Felix Matthys & Emilio Osambela & Ronnie Sircar, 2021. "When Uncertainty and Volatility Are Disconnected: Implications for Asset Pricing and Portfolio Performance," NBER Working Papers 29195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   45. Juan M. Londono & Sai Ma & Beth Anne Wilson, 2021. "The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty," International Finance Discussion Papers 1317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
   46. Matthias Burgert & Michael Chui & Denis Gorea & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2025. "Investment in an increasingly uncertain global landscape," BIS Bulletins 103, Bank for International Settlements.
   47. Huang, Wei & Lei, Xiaoyan & Yu, Miao, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty, health status, and mortality," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 362(C).
   48. Eduardo Amaral & Torsten Ehlers & Ilhyock Shim & Alexandre Tombini, 2025. "Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty: insights from a survey of central banks in the Americas and beyond," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty, volume 127, pages 7-30, Bank for International Settlements.
   49. Jahanbani, Zeinab & Ataee-pour, Majid & Mortazavi, Ali, 2024. "Application of Z-numbers theory to study the influencing criteria in underground mining method selection," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
   50. Dario Caldara & Chiara Scotti & Molin Zhong, 2021. "Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 1326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

2. Sarisoy, Cisil & de Goeij, Peter & Werker, Bas J. M., 2016. "Linear Factor Models and the Estimation of Expected Returns," Other publications TiSEM c6a9300c-88d8-44b5-afa5-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

   Cited by:

   1. Jonathan Fletcher, 2018. "An Examination of the Benefits of Factor Investing in U.K. Stock Returns," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 154-170, April.
   2. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2018. "Betas V characteristics: Do stock characteristics enhance the investment opportunity set in U.K. stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 114-129.

Articles

1. Renault, Eric & Sarisoy, Cisil & Werker, Bas J.M., 2017. "Efficient Estimation Of Integrated Volatility And Related Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 439-478, April.

   Cited by:

   1. Clinet, Simon & Potiron, Yoann, 2019. "Testing if the market microstructure noise is fully explained by the informational content of some variables from the limit order book," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 289-337.
      • Simon Clinet & Yoann Potiron, 2017. "Testing if the market microstructure noise is fully explained by the informational content of some variables from the limit order book," Papers 1709.02502, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2019.
   2. Hsu, Ching-Chi & Chau, Ka Yin & Chien, FengSheng, 2023. "Natural resource volatility and financial development during Covid-19: Implications for economic recovery," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
   3. Li, Jia & Todorov, Viktor & Tauchen, George, 2017. "Adaptive estimation of continuous-time regression models using high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 36-47.
   4. Bollerslev, Tim & Li, Jia & Li, Qiyuan, 2024. "Optimal nonparametric range-based volatility estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
   5. Simon Clinet & Yoann Potiron, 2017. "Estimation for high-frequency data under parametric market microstructure noise," Papers 1712.01479, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
      • Simon Clinet & Yoann Potiron, 2021. "Estimation for high-frequency data under parametric market microstructure noise," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 73(4), pages 649-669, August.
   6. Zhang, Junpeng & Pang, Deliang & Yang, Leijing & Ouyang, Wenjun, 2023. "Risk and synergy of multinational enterprise mergers and acquisitions under the background of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 718-729.
   7. Li, Yifan & Nolte, Ingmar & Nolte, Sandra & Yu, Shifan, 2025. "Realized candlestick wicks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
   8. Wenjuan, Zhu & Zhong, Kaiyang & He, Mingqiang & Pham, Thanh Huong & Nguyen, Quang Khai & Huy, Pham Quang, 2023. "Volatility challenges for natural resources during COVID-19 and its impact on economic development for sustainable economic repossession," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
   9. Xinwei Feng & Lidan He & Zhi Liu, 2022. "Large Deviation Principles of Realized Laplace Transform of Volatility," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 186-208, March.
   10. Jia Li & Dacheng Xiu, 2016. "Generalized Method of Integrated Moments for High‐Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1613-1633, July.
       • Jia Li & Dacheng Xiu, 2016. "Generalized Method of Integrated Moments for High‐Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1613-1633, July.
   11. Camponovo, Lorenzo & Matsushita, Yukitoshi & Otsu, Taisuke, 2019. "Empirical likelihood for high frequency data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100320, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

More information

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Statistics

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Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 1 paper announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.

1. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (1) 2020-08-24
2. NEP-RMG: Risk Management (1) 2020-08-24

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