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When Uncertainty and Volatility Are Disconnected: Implications for Asset Pricing and Portfolio Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Yacine Aït-Sahalia
  • Felix Matthys
  • Emilio Osambela
  • Ronnie Sircar

Abstract

We analyze an environment where the uncertainty in the equity market return and its volatility are both stochastic, and may be potentially disconnected. We solve a representative investor's optimal asset allocation and derive the resulting conditional equity premium and risk-free rate in equilibrium. Our empirical analysis shows that the equity premium appears to be earned for facing uncertainty, especially high uncertainty that is disconnected from lower volatility, rather than for facing volatility as traditionally assumed. Incorporating the possibility of a disconnect between volatility and uncertainty significantly improves portfolio performance, over and above the performance obtained by conditioning on volatility only.

Suggested Citation

  • Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Felix Matthys & Emilio Osambela & Ronnie Sircar, 2021. "When Uncertainty and Volatility Are Disconnected: Implications for Asset Pricing and Portfolio Performance," NBER Working Papers 29195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29195
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    Cited by:

    1. Nakajima, Jouchi, 2022. "Macroeconomic uncertainty matters: A nonlinear effect of financial volatility on real economic activity," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-121, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Lenin Arango-Castillo & María José Orraca & Regina Briseño, 2025. "Inflation volatility across advanced and emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 2025-13, Banco de México.
    3. Jiang, Fuwei & Kang, Jie & Meng, Lingchao, 2024. "Certainty of uncertainty for asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Benjamin Dennis, 2022. "Climate Change and Financial Policy: A Literature Review," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-048, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Markus Leippold & Felix Matthys, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Yield Curve [Pricing the term structure with linear regressions]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 751-797.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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