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Handelseffekte von Grenzkontrollen

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr

    ()

  • Jasmin Katrin Gröschl
  • Thomas Steinwachs

    ()

Abstract

Das am 26. März 1995 in Kraft gesetzte Schengener Abkommen hat einen Europäischen Binnenraum der Personenfreizügigkeit geschaffen und damit ein beispielloses kontinentales Integrationsziel erreicht. Die Bedrohung durch globalen Terrorismus sowie ein starker Anstieg der Flüchtlingszahlen in Europa seit Sommer 2015 haben eine Grundsatzdebatte darüber hervorgerufen, inwieweit offene Binnengrenzen politisch und ökonomisch haltbar sind. Diese Studie adressiert drei Fragestellungen: Wie stark wird die Reisezeit durch Grenzkontrollen beeinträchtigt? Beeinflusst die Abschaffung der Grenzkontrollen durch das Schengener Abkommen den grenzüberschreitenden Handel in Waren und Dienstleistungen? Welche Wohlfahrtseffekte sind aufgrund einer Veränderung internationaler Handelsvolumina in Folge einer Wiedereinführung von Grenzkontrollen im Schengen-Raum zu erwarten? Die Studie findet, dass die Überwindung von Ländergrenzen innerhalb des Schengen-Raumes um etwa 20 Minuten schneller gelingt als zwischen zwei Ländern, von denen mindestens eines nicht dem Schengen-Raum angehört. Eine Wiedereinführung der Grenzkontrollen im Schengen-Raum würde die bilateralen Warenexporte je Grenzübertritt um 2,7% reduzieren; entspricht einem Zolläquivalent von 0,54%. Die bilateralen Dienstleistungsexporte je Grenzübertritt würden um 4,2% reduziert; entspricht einem Zolläquivalent von 0,82%. Die deutschen BIP Einbußen durch einen vollständigen Zusammenbruch des Schengen-Raumes lägen zwischen 4 und 11 Mrd. Euro pro Jahr. Die weitaus realistischere Wiedereinführung von Kontrollen an den Flüchtlingsrouten würde für Deutschland zu BIP Effekten zwischen -1 und -3 Mrd. Euro jährlich führen. Ähnliche Analysen wurden für Bayern, Österreich und die Europäische Union durchgeführt.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2016. "Handelseffekte von Grenzkontrollen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 73, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Handelseffekt; Grenze; Kontrolle; Empirische Methode; Schengen-Raum;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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