Circuit theory extended: The role of speculation in crises
This paper asks why modern finance theory and the efficient market hypothesis have failed to explain long-term carry trades; persistent asset bubbles or zero lower bounds; and financial crises. It extends Godley and Lavoie (Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth, 2007) and the Theory of the Monetary Circuit to give a mathematical representation of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. In the extended circuit, the central bank rate is not neutral and the path is non-ergodic. The extended circuit has survival constraints that include a living wage, a zero interest rate and an upper interest rate. Inflation is everywhere. The possibility of stable carry trades emerges. In high interest rate, hedge economies, powerful banks invest surplus loan interest. With speculation, banks lobby to enter investment markets and the system is precariously liquid/illiquid. In a Ponzi economy, where loans never get repaid, solvency is a balance between increasing reserves, reducing interest rates and rebuilding banks' balance sheets during systemic crises. Simulating bank bailouts, household bailouts and a Keynesian boost suggests that bank bailouts are the least effective intervention, exerting downward pressure on wages and household spending: austerity.
Volume (Year): 6 (2012)
Issue (Month): ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel|
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814528
Web page: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2005.
"The Interaction between Technical Currency Trading and Exchange Rate Fluctuations,"
WIFO Working Papers
- Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "The Interaction between Technical Currency Trading and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Finance 0512033, EconWPA.
- Marco Veronese Passarella & Malcolm Sawyer, 2014. "Financialisation in the circuit," Working papers wpaper18, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
- Péter Karádi & Miklós Koren, 2008.
"A Spatial Explanation for the Balassa-Samuelson Effect,"
CeFiG Working Papers
4, Center for Firms in the Global Economy, revised 01 Oct 2008.
- Miklos Koren & Peter Karadi, 2009. "A Spatial Explanation for the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," 2009 Meeting Papers 891, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
- Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2007. "Monetary policy in the UK," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(6), pages 863-884, November.
- Christoph Fischer, 2004.
"Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
- Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries : Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Philip Arestis, 2009. "New Consensus Macroeconomics: A Critical Appraisal," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_564, Levy Economics Institute.
- Christian Hellwig & Guido Lorenzoni, 2006.
"Bubbles and Self-enforcing Debt,"
321307000000000383, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Keen, Steve, 2010.
"Solving the paradox of monetary profits,"
Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal,
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 4, pages 1-32.
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.