IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/ifweej/201234.html

Circuit theory extended: The role of speculation in crises

Author

Listed:
  • Lancastle, Neil

Abstract

This paper asks why modern finance theory and the efficient market hypothesis have failed to explain long-term carry trades; persistent asset bubbles or zero lower bounds; and financial crises. It extends Godley and Lavoie (Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth, 2007) and the Theory of the Monetary Circuit to give a mathematical representation of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. In the extended circuit, the central bank rate is not neutral and the path is non-ergodic. The extended circuit has survival constraints that include a living wage, a zero interest rate and an upper interest rate. Inflation is everywhere. The possibility of stable carry trades emerges. In high interest rate, hedge economies, powerful banks invest surplus loan interest. With speculation, banks lobby to enter investment markets and the system is precariously liquid/illiquid. In a Ponzi economy, where loans never get repaid, solvency is a balance between increasing reserves, reducing interest rates and rebuilding banks' balance sheets during systemic crises. Simulating bank bailouts, household bailouts and a Keynesian boost suggests that bank bailouts are the least effective intervention, exerting downward pressure on wages and household spending: austerity.

Suggested Citation

  • Lancastle, Neil, 2012. "Circuit theory extended: The role of speculation in crises," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6, pages 1-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201234
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-34
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/62591/1/72411291X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-34?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Péter Karádi & Miklós Koren, 2008. "A Spatial Explanation for the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," CeFiG Working Papers 4, Center for Firms in the Global Economy, revised 01 Oct 2008.
    2. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
    3. Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2007. "Monetary policy in the UK," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(6), pages 863-884, November.
    4. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
    5. Keen, Steve, 2010. "Solving the paradox of monetary profits," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 4, pages 1-32.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    7. Marco Veronese Passarella & Malcolm Sawyer, 2014. "Financialisation in the circuit," Working papers wpaper18, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    8. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    9. Christian Hellwig & Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "Bubbles and Self-Enforcing Debt," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1137-1164, July.
    10. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    11. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Perry Mehrling, 2010. "The New Lombard Street: How the Fed Became the Dealer of Last Resort," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9298, December.
    13. Philip Arestis, 2009. "The New Consensus in Macroeconomics: A Critical Appraisal," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Giuseppe Fontana & Mark Setterfield (ed.), Macroeconomic Theory and Macroeconomic Pedagogy, chapter 5, pages 100-117, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hamid Raza & Bjorn Gudmundsson & Stephen Kinsella & Gylfi Zoega, 2015. "Experiencing financialisation in small open economies: An empirical investigation of Ireland and Iceland," Working papers wpaper84, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2010. "What Monetary Policy after the Crisis?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 499-515.
    2. Martin Cihak & Tomas Holub, 2003. "Price Convergence to the EU: What Do the 1999 ICP Data Tell Us?," Working Papers 2003/02, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    3. Radeck, Karin, 2002. "Wechselkurszielzonen, wirtschaftlicher Aufholprozess und endogene Realignmentrisiken," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,30, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2016. "Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 84-109.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Altar, Moisa & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Dumitru, Ionut & Necula, Ciprian, 2009. "Evidences of the Intensity of the Balassa-Samuelson Phenomenon in the Romanian Economy," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 090106, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    7. Quinn, William, 2016. "Technological revolutions and speculative finance: Evidence from the British Bicycle Mania," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2016-06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    8. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "What's Really the Story with this Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the CEECs?," Diskussionsschriften dp0416, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    9. Gloria Alonso Masmela & Juan Nic�las Hern�ndez & Jos� David Pulido & Martha Luc�a Villa, 2008. "Medidas Alternativas De Tasa De Cambio Real Para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 4679, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Olesia Kozlova, 2013. "Forward-Rate Bias, Imperfect Knowledge, and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," 2013 Papers pko627, Job Market Papers.
    11. D’Adamo, Gaetano & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2015. "The role of the exchange rate regime in the process of real and nominal convergence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 21-37.
    12. Heather Gibson & Jim Malley, 2008. "The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 629-650, November.
    13. D. Sornette, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models," Papers 1404.0243, arXiv.org.
    14. Raj Aggarwal, 2004. "Persistent Puzzles in International Finance and Economics," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 241-250.
    15. Ilker Arslan & Eugenio Caverzasi & Mauro Gallegati & Alper Duman, 2016. "Long Term Impacts of Bank Behavior on Financial Stability. an Agent Based Modeling Approach," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 19(1), pages 1-11.
    16. Lipinska, Anna, 2006. "The Maastricht convergence criteria and optimal monetary policy for the EMU accession countries," MPRA Paper 1795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. J. M. Applegate & Marco A. Janssen, 2022. "Job Mobility and Wealth Inequality," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 1-25, January.
    18. Josip Funda & Gorana Lukiniæ & Igor Ljubaj, 2007. "Assessment of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 321-351.
    19. Thomas Goda, 2013. "The role of income inequality in crisis theories and in the subprime crisis," Working Papers PKWP1305, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    20. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9kd52ge69h is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:got:cegedp:55 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.