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Plan Or React? Analysis Of Adaptation Costs And Benefits Using Integrated Assessment Models

Author

Listed:
  • SHARDUL AGRAWALA

    () (OECD, 2, rue André Pascal - 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France)

  • FRANCESCO BOSELLO

    () (University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore, 30124 Venezia, Italy)

  • CARLO CARRARO

    () (University of Venice, CEPR, CESifo and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore, 30124 Venezia, Italy)

  • KELLY DE BRUIN

    () (Umeå universitet, SE-901 87 Umeå, Sweden)

  • ENRICA DE CIAN

    () (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore, 30124 Venezia, Italy)

  • ROB DELLINK

    () (OECD, 2, rue André Pascal - 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France)

  • ELISA LANZI

    () (OECD, 2, rue André Pascal - 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France)

Abstract

This report examines adaptation and mitigation within an integrated framework. Global and regional costs of adaptation are assessed dynamically and the resulting benefits are quantified. This is accomplished by developing a framework to incorporate adaptation as a policy variable within three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs); the global Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE), and the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid (WITCH) model. The framework developed here takes into account investments in reactive adaptation and in adaptation "stocks", as well as investments in building adaptive capacity. This report presents the first inter-model comparison of results on adaptation costs using the emerging category of adaptation-IAMs. Results show that least-cost policy response to climate change will need to involve subsantial amounts of mitigation efforts, investments in adaptation stock, reactive adaptation measures and adaptive capacity to limit the remaining damages.

Suggested Citation

  • Shardul Agrawala & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Carraro & Kelly De Bruin & Enrica De Cian & Rob Dellink & Elisa Lanzi, 2011. "Plan Or React? Analysis Of Adaptation Costs And Benefits Using Integrated Assessment Models," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(03), pages 175-208.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:02:y:2011:i:03:n:s2010007811000267
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007811000267
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Bruin, Kelly Chloe, 2011. "Distinguishing Between Proactive (Stock) and Reactive (Flow) Adaptation," CERE Working Papers 2011:8, CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics.
    2. Enrica De Cian & Elisa Lanzi & Roberto Roson, 2007. "The Impact of Temperature Change on Energy Demand: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," Working Papers 2007.46, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Enrica De Cian & Valentina Bosetti & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "The 2008 WITCH Model: New Model Features and Baseline," Working Papers 2009.85, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39.
    5. Francesco Bosello, 2010. "Adaptation, Mitigation and “Green” R&D to Combat Global Climate Change. Insights From an Empirical Integrated Assessment Exercise," Working Papers 2010.22, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Andrea Bigano & Francesco Bosello & Giuseppe Marano, 2006. "Energy Demand and Temperature: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," Working Papers 2006.112, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Valentina Bosetti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2007. "The WITCH Model. Structure, Baseline, Solutions," Working Papers 2007.10, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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    1. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:04:y:2013:i:02:n:s2010007813500061 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:6:p:1141-1162 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kennedy, Matthew & Basu, Biswajit, 2013. "Overcoming barriers to low carbon technology transfer and deployment: An exploration of the impact of projects in developing and emerging economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 685-693.
    4. Millner, Antony & Dietz, Simon, 2015. "Adaptation to climate change and economic growth in developing countries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57863, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Habla, Wolfgang & Roeder, Kerstin, 2017. "The political economy of mitigation and adaptation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 239-257.
    6. Anil Markandya & Enrica De Cian & Laurent Drouet & Josué M. Polanco-Martìnez & Francesco Bosello, 2016. "Building Uncertainty into the Adaptation Cost Estimation in Integrated Assessment Models," Working Papers 2016.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Walter Vergara & Ana R. Rios & Luis Miguel Galindo Paliza & Pablo Gutman & Paul Isbell & Paul Hugo Suding & Joseluis Samaniego, 2013. "The Climate and Development Challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean: Options for Climate-Resilient, Low-Carbon Development," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 80518, February.
    8. Emmerling, Johannes & Drouet, Laurent Drouet & Reis, Lara Aleluia & Bevione, Michela & Berger, Loic & Bosetti, Valentina & Carrara, Samuel & De Cian, Enrica & De Maere D'Aertrycke, Gauthier & Longden,, 2016. "The WITCH 2016 Model - Documentation and Implementation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation,and Transformation Pathways 240748, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Halkos, George, 2014. "The Economics of Climate Change Policy: Critical review and future policy directions," MPRA Paper 56841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Tyler Felgenhauer & Mort Webster, 2014. "Modeling adaptation as a flow and stock decision with mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 665-679, February.
    11. Hertel, Thomas W. & Lobell, David B., 2014. "Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 562-575.
    12. repec:eee:ecolec:v:144:y:2018:i:c:p:171-185 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integrated assessment modeling; adaptation; adaptive capacity; climate change;

    JEL classification:

    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q59 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Other

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