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How to solve dynamic stochastic models computing expectations just once

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Listed:
  • Kenneth L. Judd
  • Lilia Maliar
  • Serguei Maliar
  • Inna Tsener

Abstract

We introduce a computational technique—precomputation of integrals—that makes it possible to construct conditional expectation functions in dynamic stochastic models in the initial stage of a solution procedure. This technique is very general: it works for a broad class of approximating functions, including piecewise polynomials; it can be applied to both Bellman and Euler equations; and it is compatible with both continuous‐state and discrete‐state shocks. In the case of normally distributed shocks, the integrals can be constructed in a closed form. After the integrals are precomputed, we can solve stochastic models as if they were deterministic. We illustrate this technique using one‐ and multi‐agent growth models with continuous‐state shocks (and up to 60 state variables), as well as Aiyagari's (1994) model with discrete‐state shocks. Precomputation of integrals saves programming efforts, reduces computational burden, and increases the accuracy of solutions. It is of special value in computationally intense applications. MATLAB codes are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth L. Judd & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar & Inna Tsener, 2017. "How to solve dynamic stochastic models computing expectations just once," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), pages 851-893, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:quante:v:8:y:2017:i:3:p:851-893
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How to Solve Dynamic Stochastic Models Computing Expectations Just Once
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-10-24 08:00:06

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    Cited by:

    1. Guerra Vallejos, Ernesto & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Eugenio & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Juan & Wright, Brian D., 2021. "Solving dynamic stochastic models with multiple occasionally binding constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Rigas Oikonomou & Andrew Scott, 2019. "Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(6), pages 2554-2604.
    3. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Rigas Oikonomou & Andrew Scott, 2015. "Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It (Plus Appendix)," Working Papers 799, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2019. "Review of Solution and Estimation Methods for Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with the Zero Lower Bound," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 51-104, March.
    5. Ivan Rudik & Derek Lemoine & Maxwell Rosenthal, 2018. "General Bayesian Learning in Dynamic Stochastic Models: Estimating the Value of Science Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Ayşe Kabukçuoğlu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2021. "A Generalized Time Iteration Method for Solving Dynamic Optimization Problems with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 435-460, August.
    7. Karolos Arapakis, 2023. "A Method to Pre-compile Numerical Integrals When Solving Stochastic Dynamic Problems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 593-610, February.
    8. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Perla, Jesse & Sood, Arnav, 2021. "Exploiting Symmetry in High-Dimensional Dynamic Programming," CEPR Discussion Papers 16285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Luigi Bocola, 2016. "The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 879-926.
    10. Gu, Shijun & Jia, Chengcheng, 2022. "Firm dynamics and SOE transformation during China’s Economic Reform," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    12. Gary S. Anderson, 2018. "Reliably Computing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Model Solutions: An Algorithm with Error Formulas," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Franck Xavier Signe, 2025. "Impact of productivity shock on household welfare in AfCFTA: a GSSA method," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(5), pages 1-18, May.
    14. Thomas H. Jørgensen & Maxime Tô, 2020. "Robust Estimation of Finite Horizon Dynamic Economic Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 499-509, February.
    15. Takeshi Fukasawa, 2024. "Computationally Efficient Methods for Solving Discrete-time Dynamic models with Continuous Actions," Papers 2407.04227, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    16. Fabian Goessling, 2019. "Exact Expectations: Efficient Calculation of DSGE Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 977-990, March.
    17. Rubini, Loris & Moro, Alessio, 2019. "Stochastic Structural Change," MPRA Paper 96144, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar & Sébastien Villemot, 2013. "Taking Perturbation to the Accuracy Frontier: A Hybrid of Local and Global Solutions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 307-325, October.
    19. de Castro, Luciano & Galvao, Antonio F. & Muchon, Andre, 2023. "Numerical Solution of Dynamic Quantile Models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    20. Hull, Isaiah, 2015. "Approximate dynamic programming with post-decision states as a solution method for dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 57-70.
    21. Jeppe Druedahl, 2021. "A Guide on Solving Non-convex Consumption-Saving Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 747-775, October.
    22. Dennis, Richard, 2024. "Using a hyperbolic cross to solve non-linear macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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