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Public Sector Debt Dynamics: The Persistence and Sources of Shocks to Debt in 10 EU Countries

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  • MASSIMO ANTONINI
  • KEVIN LEE
  • JACINTA PIRES

Abstract

This paper characterizes the time‐series properties of debt:GDP ratios in 10 EU countries over 1982–2009 and measures the size and source of the permanent effects of shocks as they evolve over time. The analysis shows debt dynamics in the EU10 are complicated, involving important intercountry interactions and protracted adjustment periods of about 10 years. We find evidence of asymmetries in the effects of different forms of “fiscal consolidation,” with unanticipated reductions in government spending having a more permanent effect than unanticipated increases in government revenue. Unanticipated business cycle fluctuations also have important long‐term effects on the ratio.

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  • Massimo Antonini & Kevin Lee & Jacinta Pires, 2013. "Public Sector Debt Dynamics: The Persistence and Sources of Shocks to Debt in 10 EU Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 277-298, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i:2-3:p:277-298
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12002
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    2. Casalin, Fabrizio & Dia, Enzo & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2020. "Public debt dynamics with tax revenue constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 501-515.
    3. Insook Lee, 2022. "Does Political Polarization Lead to a Rise in Government Debt?," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 241(2), pages 3-25, June.
    4. Nektarios A. Michail & Demetris Koursaros & Christos S. Savva, 2016. "The Lack of Persistence of Interest Rate Changes on Banks’ Lending and Risk Taking Behaviour," Working Papers 2016-1, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    5. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2018. "Debt Crisis in Europe (2001-2015): A Network General Equilibrium GVAR approach," MPRA Paper 89998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Martin-Valmayor, Miguel A. & Carmona-González, Nieves & Sánchez-Martín, María-Pilar & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2024. "Persistence in sovereign debt during the past two centuries: Evidence for the US and the largest European economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 390-403.
    7. Nektarios A. Michail & Christos S. Savva & Demetris Koursaros, 2021. "Are central banks to blame? Monetary policy and bank lending behavior," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 762-779, October.
    8. Maria Malmierca-Ordoqui & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Lorenzo Bermejo, 2024. "Private and public debt convergence: a fractional cointegration approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 161-183, February.
    9. Sutirtha Bagchi, 2021. "The effects of political competition on the funding of public‐sector pension plans," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 691-725, September.
    10. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Miguel A. Martin-Valmayor & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Nieves Carmona-González, 2024. "Persistence of the Sovereign Debt Components and Debt Sustainability: Some Evidence for the US and Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11409, CESifo.
    12. Olegs Tkacevs & Karsten Staehr, 2025. "The effects of macroeconomic and budget balance shocks on public debt trajectories in the Euro area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2025-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Dec 2025.
    13. Helmut Herwartz & Malte Rengel, 2018. "Size-corrected inference in fiscal policy reaction functions: a three country assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 391-416, September.
    14. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2018. "Debt dynamics in Europe: A Network General Equilibrium GVAR approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-202.
    15. Nektarios A. Michail & Demetris Koursaros & Christos S. Savva, 2016. "The Lack of Persistence of Interest Rate Changes on Banks’ Lending and Risk Taking Behaviour," Working Papers 2016-01, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    16. Craig, Steven G. & Hemissi, Wided & Mukherjee, Satadru & Sørensen, Bent E., 2016. "How do politicians save? Buffer-stock management of unemployment insurance finance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 18-29.
    17. Ong, Kian, 2020. "Net foreign assets dynamics: the persistence and sources of shocks to net foreign assets in 12 EU countries," MPRA Paper 100929, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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