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Fiscal Policy, Public Debt Stabilisation and Politics: Theory and UK Evidence

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  • Lockwood, Ben
  • Philippopoulos, Apostolis
  • Snell, Andy

Abstract

This paper presents a two-party model of fiscal and debt policy in which the parties do not care about policy outcomes when out of office. Unlike other models of this type, the authors' model has predictions that are largely consistent with existing empirical findings about partisan and electoral effects on government expenditure, tax revenue, and debt. It also yields new predictions about how the feedback of fiscal policy on lagged debt may depend on partisan and electoral effects. These new predictions are not rejected by a test of the model on U.K. data. Copyright 1996 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Lockwood, Ben & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Snell, Andy, 1996. "Fiscal Policy, Public Debt Stabilisation and Politics: Theory and UK Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 894-911, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:106:y:1996:i:437:p:894-911
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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & George Economides, 2008. "Fiscal policy, rent seeking, and growth under electoral uncertainty: theory and evidence from the OECD," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1375-1405, November.
    2. Ivan Matalík & Michal Slavík, 2005. "Debt Management in the Czech Republic (formation in the 1990s and the current state)," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(1), pages 33-50.
    3. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & George Economides & Pantelis Kammas, 2009. "Do political incentives matter for tax policies? Ideology, opportunism and the tax structure," Working Papers 2009_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Malley, Jim & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Woitek, Ulrich, 2007. "Electoral uncertainty, fiscal policy and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 1051-1080, March.
    5. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    6. Price, Simon, 1997. "Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 407-427, September.
    7. Malley, Jim & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Economides, George, 2002. "Testing for tax smoothing in a general equilibrium model of growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 301-315, June.
    8. Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 1999. "Economic Growth And Endogenous Fiscal Policy: In Search Of A Data Consistent General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 1999_18, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jan 1998.
    9. Keshab BHATTARAI, "undated". "Bargaining, Coalitions, Signalling and Repeated Games for Economic Development and Poverty Alleviation," EcoMod2008 23800012, EcoMod.
    10. Pitsoulis, Athanassios & Siebel, Jens Peter, 2009. "Zur politischen Ökonomie von Defiziten und Kapitalsteuerwettbewerb," Discourses in Social Market Economy 2009-13, OrdnungsPolitisches Portal (OPO).
    11. Fredrik Carlsen, 2006. "Election cycles, party ideology and incumbent popularity: theory and evidence for OECD economies," Working Paper Series 7906, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    12. Lockwood, Ben & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2001. "Fiscal policy and politics: theory and evidence from Greece 1960-1997," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-268, April.
    13. George Economides & Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Ulrich Woitek, 2003. "Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policies and Growth: Theory and Evidence from Germany, the UK and the US," Working Papers 2003_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    14. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & George Economides, 2005. "Rent Seeking, Policy and Growth under Electoral Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c010_029, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    15. Jens Peter Siebel & Athanassios Pitsoulis, 2011. "Four Budget Deficit Theories in One Model," Journal for Economic Educators, Middle Tennessee State University, Business and Economic Research Center, vol. 11(2), pages 25-32, Fall.
    16. Blume Lorenz & Döring Thomas & Voigt Stefan, 2008. "Fiskalische Effekte der Kommunalverfassungsreformen der 1990er Jahre in Deutschland / Reforming Local Constitutions in Germany during the 1990s – Their Fiscal Effects," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(4), pages 317-344, August.
    17. George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Simon Price, 2002. "Elections, Fiscal Policy and Growth: Revisiting the Mechanism," CESifo Working Paper Series 691, CESifo Group Munich.
    18. Massimo Antonini & Kevin Lee & Jacinta Pires, "undated". "Public Sector Debt Dynamics: The Persistence and Sources of Shocks to Debt in Ten EU Countries," Discussion Papers 11/08, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    19. Economides, George & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Price, Simon, 2003. "How elections affect fiscal policy and growth: revisiting the mechanism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 777-792, November.
    20. Jens Peter Siebel & Athanassios Pitsoulis, 2011. "Four Budget Deficit Theories in One Model," Journal for Economic Educators, Middle Tennessee State University, Business and Economic Research Center, vol. 11(1), pages 25-32, Summer.
    21. Alexia Prskawetz & Gustav Feichtinger & Mikulàš Luptàčik, 1998. "The accomplishment of the Maastricht criteria with respect to initial debt," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 93-110, June.
    22. Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 1999. "A note on testing for tax-smoothing in general equilibrium," Working Papers 1999_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    23. Goeminne Stijn & Smolders Carine, 2010. "Strategic Use of Debt in Flemish Municipalities," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, July.

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