IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v27y2022i3p3459-3474.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Did China‐Pakistan free trade agreement promote trade and development in Pakistan?

Author

Listed:
  • Syed H. Shah
  • Muhammad A. Kamal
  • Da L. Yu

Abstract

China‐Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA) increased trade between China and Pakistan, however, it also swelled Pakistan trade deficit with China. The empirical findings of this paper suggest that CPFTA positively contribute to Pakistan exports to China and her imports from China but the increase in Pakistan imports was far greater than Pakistan exports after CPFTA. Resultantly, Pakistan's trade deficit with China increased and Pakistan's growth hampered. Constant market share analysis suggests that a better understanding of the Chinese market, efficient utilization of tariff lines and focus on products of the comparative edge are important for Pakistan to benefit from CPFTA. Otherwise, CPFTA is counterproductive for Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed H. Shah & Muhammad A. Kamal & Da L. Yu, 2022. "Did China‐Pakistan free trade agreement promote trade and development in Pakistan?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3459-3474, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:3:p:3459-3474
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2331
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2331
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.2331?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Roberto & Kaltani, Linda & Loayza, Norman V., 2009. "Openness can be good for growth: The role of policy complementarities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49, September.
    2. Devashish Mitra, 2016. "Endogenous political organization and the value of trade agreements," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Political Economy of Trade Policy Theory, Evidence and Applications, chapter 2, pages 23-35, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Samina Shabir & Reema Kazmi, 2007. "Economic Effects of the Recently Signed Pak-China Free Trade Agreement," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(Special E), pages 174-202, September.
    4. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
    5. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    6. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    7. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "Trade Wars and Trade Talks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 675-708, August.
    8. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    9. Giovanni Maggi & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 1998. "The Value of Trade Agreements in the Presence of Political Pressures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 574-601, June.
    10. Gemma Estrada & Donghyun Park & Innwon Park & Soonchan Park, 2012. "China's Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and Korea: A Comparative Analysis," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(4), pages 108-126, July.
    11. Caroline Freund, 2000. "Different Paths to Free Trade: The Gains from Regionalism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1317-1341.
    12. Mai, Yin Hua & Adams, Philip & Dixon, Peter & Menon, Jayant, 2010. "The Awakening Chinese Economy: Macro and Terms of Trade Impacts on 10 Major Asia-Pacific Countries," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 66, Asian Development Bank.
    13. Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-892, December.
    14. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, January.
    15. Cooray, Arusha & Dzhumashev, Ratbek & Schneider, Friedrich, 2017. "How Does Corruption Affect Public Debt? An Empirical Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 115-127.
    16. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    18. Sayeeda Bano & Nawal K. Paswan, 2016. "New Zealand–India Trade Relations and Growth Potential: An Empirical Analysis," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 72(1), pages 50-74, March.
    19. Guglielmo Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 573-573, October.
    20. Hoekman, Bernard & Nicita, Alessandro, 2011. "Trade Policy, Trade Costs, and Developing Country Trade," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2069-2079.
    21. Syed Hasanat Shah & Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 2016. "The nexus between sectoral FDI and institutional quality: empirical evidence from Pakistan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(17), pages 1591-1601, April.
    22. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    23. Magee Christopher S, 2003. "Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements: An Empirical Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, December.
    24. Shepherd, Ben & Wilson, John S., 2009. "Trade facilitation in ASEAN member countries: Measuring progress and assessing priorities," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 367-383, September.
    25. Theresa Chaudhry & Nida Jamil & Azam Chaudhry, 2017. "Pakistan’s Experience with the Pakistan–China FTA: Lessons for CPEC," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(Special E), pages 1-24, September.
    26. Farhat Mahmood & Juthathip Jongwanich, 2018. "Export-enhancing Effects of Free Trade Agreements in South Asia," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 13(1), pages 24-53, April.
    27. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 1999. "Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 143-180.
    28. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    29. Robert W. Staiger & Kyle Bagwell, 1999. "An Economic Theory of GATT," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 215-248, March.
    30. Liu, Yan & Shi, Xunpeng & Laurenceson, James, 2020. "Dynamics of Australia's LNG export performance: A modified constant market shares analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    31. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
    32. Chang-Soo Lee & Don Moon, 2010. "Impacts of Sequential Free Trade Agreements in East Asia: A CGE and Political Economy Analysis," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 365-381.
    33. Ghosh, Sucharita & Yamarik, Steven, 2004. "Are regional trading arrangements trade creating?: An application of extreme bounds analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 369-395, July.
    34. Merkies, A H Q M & van der Meer, T, 1988. "A Theoretical Foundation for Constant Market Share Analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 65-80.
    35. Flávio Benevett Fligenspan & Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis & André Moreira Cunha & Rômulo Viana Clezar, 2015. "The Brazilian exports of labor-intensive goods in the 2000s: An analysis using the Constant Market Share Method," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 16(1), pages 128-144.
    36. Ornelas, Emanuel, 2005. "Endogenous free trade agreements and the multilateral trading system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 471-497, December.
    37. Yuefen Li, 2006. "Trade Balance: Numbers Can be Deceiving," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(3), pages 54-70, May.
    38. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Andras Komaromi, 2021. "Trade and income in the long run: Are there really gains, and are they widely shared?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 703-731, September.
    39. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    40. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    41. Guo Yan & Sheng Li & Yaqi Lin & Jie Li, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Provincial Data," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(6), pages 43-63, November.
    42. Freund, Caroline & Bolaky, Bineswaree, 2008. "Trade, regulations, and income," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 309-321, October.
    43. Thornton, John, 1996. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 413-416, March.
    44. Plummer, Michael G., 2006. "Toward Win-Win Regionalism in Asia: Issues and Challenges in Forming Efficient Trade Agreements," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 5, Asian Development Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arsalan Ahmed & Faisal Nawaz & Muhammad Ali & Muhammad Younus & Shahida Wizarat, 2023. "Opportunities for Pakistan’s Exports Growth through OBOR: Case of Central Asian Republics," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 5(1), pages 32-41.
    2. Bangchu Qiu & Gang Tian & Daoming Wang, 2022. "Empirical Analysis of Sustainable Trade Effects of FTAs Based on Augmented Gravity Model: A Case Study of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hur, Jung & Park, Cheolbeom, 2012. "Do Free Trade Agreements Increase Economic Growth of the Member Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1283-1294.
    2. Salvador Gil & Rafael Llorca & J. Antonio Martínez‐Serrano, 2008. "Assessing the Enlargement and Deepening of the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1253-1272, September.
    3. Florian Mölders & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 429-456, September.
    4. Eicher, Theo S. & Henn, Christian, 2011. "In search of WTO trade effects: Preferential trade agreements promote trade strongly, but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 137-153, March.
    5. Bianka Dettmer, 2012. "The European Union's service directive: Contrasting ex ante estimates with empirical evidence," Jena Economics Research Papers 2012-019, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    6. Maggi, Giovanni, 2014. "International Trade Agreements," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 317-390, Elsevier.
    7. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    8. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Guglielmo Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 573-573, October.
    10. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    11. Cheong, Juyoung & Kwak, Do Won & Tang, Kam Ki, 2015. "Heterogeneous Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements: How does Partner Similarity Matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 222-236.
    12. Arisara Romyen & Chonrada Nunti & Paramin Neranon, 2023. "Trade efficiency under FTA for Thailand’s agricultural exports: copula-based gravity stochastic frontier model," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    14. Neil Foster & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Preferential trade agreements and the structure of international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 385-409, September.
    15. Tristan Kohl, 2014. "Do we really know that trade agreements increase trade?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 443-469, August.
    16. Shadat Hossain, 2018. "SAFTA and AFTA: a comparative welfare analysis of two regional trade agreements," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    17. Francisco Rodríguez, 2006. "Openness and Growth: What Have We Learned?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-011, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    18. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "The breadth of preferential trade agreements and the margins of exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 181-251, February.
    19. N. R. Ramírez-Rondán & Marco E. Terrones & Andrea Vilchez, 2020. "Does financial sector development affect the growth gains from trade openness?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 475-515, August.
    20. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2016. "Terms of trade and global efficiency effects of free trade agreements, 1990–2002," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 279-298.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:3:p:3459-3474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.