IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of Sequential Free Trade Agreements in East Asia: A CGE and Political Economy Analysis


  • Chang-Soo Lee
  • Don Moon


This paper estimates the economic impacts of the various sequential liberalization scenarios in East Asia, emphasizing the significance of the “sequence” of the liberalization process in computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The major findings are as follows: (1) “Sequence” matters in measuring the economic impacts of free trade agreement (FTA) scenarios in the region; (2) Scenario 1 (Korea-China FTA → Korea-Japan FTA → China-Japan FTA) is the sequence maximizing Korea's economic gains, whereas Scenario 3 (Korea-China-Japan FTA) is the one most preferred economically by China and Japan; (3) Korea's FTAs with the United States (US) and European Union (EU) can be evaluated as a preemptive strategic move, causing changes in FTA preferences of Korea and Japan; (4) the prediction of Bond and Baldwin (adjustment cost and juggernaut effect) and that of Evenett et al. (trade diversion effect) are supported by the empirical results that Korea's (China's) expected gains from northeast Asian FTA sequences increase (decrease) after Korea's FTAs with the US and EU are made; (5) predictions about the International Political Economy (IPE) theories (power consideration and domestic politics) upon the sequential FTA formations in East Asia are consistent with the findings above.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang-Soo Lee & Don Moon, 2010. "Impacts of Sequential Free Trade Agreements in East Asia: A CGE and Political Economy Analysis," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 365-381.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:glecrv:v:39:y:2010:i:4:p:365-381 DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2010.533846

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters,in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    4. Chinn, Menzie D & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1995. "Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 801-821, December.
    5. Holmes, Mark J., 2002. "Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 733-746.
    6. Gilles Dufrenot & Laurent Mathieu & Valerie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2006. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 203-229.
    7. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    8. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2006. "Revisiting the interest rate-exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 208-224, February.
    9. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2010. "Asymmetry dynamics in real exchange rates: New results on East Asian currencies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 648-661, October.
    10. Huang, Chao-Hsi, 2010. "International capital mobility: An alternative test based on intertemporal current account models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 467-482, June.
    11. Lucio Sarno, 2000. "Systematic sampling and real exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 24-57, March.
    12. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1999. "Interest Rates, Risk, and Imperfect Markets: Puzzles and Policies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 59-76, Summer.
    13. Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993. "A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April.
    14. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
    15. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
    16. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2004. "Asian real interest rates, nonlinear dynamics, and international parity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-405.
    17. Ferreira, Alex Luiz & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2007. "Does the real interest parity hypothesis hold? Evidence for developed and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 364-382, April.
    18. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Interest Rate Parity: Some New Evidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 255-274, October.
    19. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2006. "Are international real interest rate linkages characterized by asymmetric adjustments?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 384-396, October.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May.
    21. Jyh-Lin Wu & Show-Lin Chen, 1998. "A Re-examination of Real Interest Rate Parity," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 837-851, November.
    22. Mancuso, Anthony J. & Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas J., 2003. "Nonlinear aspects of capital market integration and real interest rate equalization," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 283-303.
    23. Hamizun Ismail & Ahmad Baharumshah, 2008. "Malaysia’s current account deficits: an intertemporal optimization perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 569-590, November.
    24. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Jang, Inwon, 2007. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, sacrifice ratio, and the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 797-813, September.
    25. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
    26. Mills, Terence C. & Wang, Ping, 2006. "Modelling regime shift behaviour in Asian real interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 952-966, December.
    27. Fountas, Stilianos & Wu, Jyh-lin, 1999. "Testing for Real Interest Rate Convergence in European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 158-174, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Yamashita, Nobuaki, 2006. "Production fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 233-256, December.

    More about this item


    FTA sequence; East Asia; CGE; political economy;


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:glecrv:v:39:y:2010:i:4:p:365-381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.