The Awakening Chinese Economy: Macro and Terms of Trade Impacts on 10 Major Asia-Pacific Countries
This paper analyzes the impact that terms of trade (TOT) are likely to have on the growth of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) neighboring countries. Two scenarios employing a dynamic computable general equilibrium framework are considered: (i) a convergence scenario, where historical trends are projected; and (ii) a baseline scenario, where technological progress in the PRC is placed in line with that of the United States (US). The results show that the PRC’s technological convergence leads to increased world prices for mining products, and lower world prices for manufactures, especially those exported extensively by the PRC. On the whole, however, the effects on the growth and TOT of the PRC’s neighboring countries are relatively small. The modelling framework used in this study explicitly captures the various offsetting effects that dampen the impact on TOT and contribute to the small impact on growth. In addition, the additional capital required to finance the PRC’s growth comes predominantly from domestic savings, placing little pressure on the global supply of capital. Thus, an awakening PRC is unlikely to make a dramatic entrance despite the country’s overall positive impact on the region – although there is nothing to fear, there is also only little to gain.
|Date of creation:||01 Nov 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 789, Manila|
Fax: (63-2) 636-2648
Web page: http://www.adb.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2008.
"The Global Impact of Chinese Growth,"
IMES Discussion Paper Series
08-E-22, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2011. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," Studies in Economics 1115, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Ippei Fujiwara, 2013. "The global impact of Chinese growth," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 399, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Menon, Jayant, 1998. "Total factor productivity growth in foreign and domestic firms in Malaysian manufacturing," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 251-280.
- Dixon, Peter B & Menon, Jayant & Rimmer, Maureen T, 2000. "Changes in Technology and Preferences: A General Equilibrium Explanation of Rapid Growth in Trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 33-55, March.
- Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0066. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivan B. de Leon)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.