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Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Nonergodicity, and Wealth Inequality

Author

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  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
  • Roger E. A. Farmer

Abstract

We construct a model of an exchange economy in which agents trade assets contingent on an observable signal, the probability of which depends on public opinion. The agents in our model are replaced occasionally, and each person updates beliefs in response to observed outcomes. We show that the distribution of the observed signal is described by a quasi-nonergodic process and that people continue to disagree with each other forever. These disagreements generate large wealth inequalities that arise from the multiplicative nature of wealth dynamics, which makes successful bold bets highly profitable.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2023. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Nonergodicity, and Wealth Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(4), pages 947-993.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/722214
    DOI: 10.1086/722214
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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez, 2025. "Causal Portfolio Optimization: Principles and Sensitivity-Based Solutions," Papers 2504.05743, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    2. Mitsokapas, Evangelos & Harris, Rosemary J., 2022. "Decision-making with distorted memory: Escaping the trap of past experience," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).

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