IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/28261.html

Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity & Wealth Inequality

Author

Listed:
  • Roger Farmer
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Abstract

We construct a model of an exchange economy in which agents trade assets contingent on an observable signal, the probability of which depends on public opinion. The agents in our model are replaced occasionally and each person updates beliefs in response to observed outcomes. We show that the distribution of the observed signal is described by a quasi-non-ergodic process and that people continue to disagree with each other forever. These disagreements generate large wealth inequalities that arise from the multiplicative nature of wealth dynamics which make successful bold bets highly profitable.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Farmer & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2020. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity & Wealth Inequality," NBER Working Papers 28261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28261
    Note: AP EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28261.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michele Vodret & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence Tóth & Michael Benzaquen, 2023. "Microfounding GARCH models and beyond: a Kyle-inspired model with adaptive agents," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(3), pages 599-625, July.
    2. Michele Vodret & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence Tóth & Michael Benzaquen, 2022. "Microfounding GARCH Models and Beyond: A Kyle-inspired Model with Adaptive Agents," Working Papers hal-03797251, HAL.
    3. Michele Vodret & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence Toth & Michael Benzaquen, 2022. "Microfounding GARCH Models and Beyond: A Kyle-inspired Model with Adaptive Agents," Papers 2206.06764, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.