Promotions in the Internal and External Labor Market: Evidence from Professional Football Coaching Careers
We study job movements of professional football coaches. The likelihood of an external promotion is strongly related to measures of individual performance and only weakly related to team performance. In contrast, the likelihood of an internal promotion is not related to individual performance. This difference arises from the process governing internal job openings, since openings are negatively related to performance. Conditional on the presence of an opening, promotion likelihood is increasing in individual performance. Relationships matter, as coaches are often hired and fired as a group. These findings have implications for several issues related to incentives and organizational design.
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