Leading Dragon Phenomenon: New Opportunities for Catch-up in Low-Income Countries
Modern economic development is accompanied by the structural transformation from an agrarian to an industrial economy. Since the 18th century, all countries that industrialized successfully have followed their comparative advantages and leveraged the latecomer advantage, including emerging market economies such as the People's Republic of China (PRC), India, and Indonesia. The current view is that Chinese dominance in manufacturing hinders poor countries from developing similar industries. We argue that rising labor cost is causing the PRC to graduate from labor-intensive to more capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. This will result in the relocation of low-skill manufacturing jobs to other low-wage countries. This process, which we call the “leading dragon phenomenon,” offers an unprecedented opportunity to low-income countries. Such economies can seize this opportunity by attracting the rising outward foreign direct investment flowing from Brazil, the PRC, India, and Indonesia into the manufacturing sectors. All low-income countries can compete for the jobs spillover from the PRC and other emerging economies, but the winner must implement credible economic development strategies that are consistent with its comparative advantage. © 2013 Asian Development Bank and Asian Development Bank Institute.
Volume (Year): 30 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/loi/adev|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000.
"International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications,"
CID Working Papers
42, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huang Yiping & Jiang Tingsong, 2010. "What Does the Lewis Turning Point Mean for China? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22718, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006.
"The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
- Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links," NBER Working Papers 12167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Justin Lin & Ha-Joon Chang, 2009. "Should Industrial Policy in Developing Countries Conform to Comparative Advantage or Defy it? A Debate Between Justin Lin and Ha-Joon Chang," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 27(5), pages 483-502, 09.
- Whalley John & Weisbrod Aaron, 2012.
"The Contribution of Chinese FDI to Africa's Pre Crisis Growth Surge,"
Global Economy Journal,
De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-28, December.
- Aaron Weisbrod & John Whalley, 2011. "The Contribution of Chinese FDI to Africa's Pre Crisis Growth Surge," NBER Working Papers 17544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Farole, 2011. "Special Economic Zones in Africa : Comparing Performance and Learning from Global Experience," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2268.
- Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010.
"Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries,"
Handbook of Development Economics,
- Ann Harrison & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 15261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Lipsey & Eric D. Ramstetter & Magnus Blomstrom, 2000. "Outward FDI and Parent Exports and Employment: Japan, the United States, and Sweden," NBER Working Papers 7623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ju, Jiandong & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yong, 2015.
"Endowment structures, industrial dynamics, and economic growth,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 244-263.
- Ju, Jiandong & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yong, 2009. "Endowment structures, industrial dynamics, and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5055, The World Bank.
- Yong Wang & Justin Yifu Lin & Jiandong Ju, 2010. "Endowment Structure, Industrial Dynamics, and Economic Growth," 2010 Meeting Papers 679, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Allen J. Scott, 2009. "World Development Report 2009: reshaping economic geography," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 583-586, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:adbadr:v:30:y:2013:i:1:p:52-84. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Pollock-Nelson)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.