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A simulation impact evaluation of rural income transfers in Malawi and Ghana

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  • Mateusz Filipski
  • J. Edward Taylor

Abstract

We use a disaggregated rural economy-wide modelling framework to simulate and compare the impacts of an input subsidy, cash transfer, and output price support on production and welfare in rural Malawi and Ghana. Household groups in the models are defined by their eligibility for current transfers. Simulations are calibrated to official government spending. No intervention appears as unequivocally superior. The impacts and efficiency of each transfer mechanism are shaped by the structure of the economy, market conditions, and programme design.

Suggested Citation

  • Mateusz Filipski & J. Edward Taylor, 2012. "A simulation impact evaluation of rural income transfers in Malawi and Ghana," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 109-129, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevef:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:109-129
    DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2012.649542
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:iwt:worppr:h042064 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Minde, Isaac J. & Jayne, Thomas S. & Crawford, Eric W. & Ariga, Joshua & Govereh, Jones, 2008. "Promoting Fertilizer Use in Africa: Current Issues and Empirical Evidence from Malawi, Zambia, and Kenya," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 54934, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    3. Burfisher,Mary E., 2011. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766968, December.
    4. Nkonde, Chewe & Mason, Nicole M. & Sitko, Nicholas J. & Jayne, Thomas S., 2011. "Who Gained and Who Lost from Zambia's 2010 Maize Marketing Policies?," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 99610, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    5. Burfisher,Mary E., 2011. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521139779, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bezu, Sosina & Kassie, Girma T. & Shiferaw, Bekele & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob, 2014. "Impact of Improved Maize Adoption on Welfare of Farm Households in Malawi: A Panel Data Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 120-131.
    2. Channing Arndt & Karl Pauw & James Thurlow, 2016. "The Economy-wide Impacts and Risks of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 962-980.
    3. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2018. "The direct and indirect effect of cash transfers: the case of Indonesia," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(5), pages 793-807, May.
    4. Harold Alderman & Ruslan Yemtsov, 2012. "Productive Role of Safety Nets," World Bank Publications - Reports 13551, The World Bank Group.
    5. R. Wendy Karamba & Paul C. Winters, 2015. "Gender and agricultural productivity: implications of the Farm Input Subsidy Program in Malawi," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(3), pages 357-374, May.
    6. Houssou, Nazaire & Andam, Kwaw S. & Asante-Addo, Collins, 2017. "Can better targeting improve the effectiveness of Ghana's Fertilizer Subsidy Program? Lessons from Ghana and other countries in Africa south of the Sahara," IFPRI discussion papers 1605, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Eric ROUGIER & François COMBARNOUS & Yves-André FAURE, 2017. "The ‘local economy’ effect of social transfers: A municipality-level analysis of the local growth impact of the Bolsa Familia Programme in the Brazilian Nordeste," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-09, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    8. J. Edward Taylor & Karen Thome, 2012. "A Methodology for Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) of Cash Transfers," One Pager 183, International Policy Centre.
    9. Sylvester Amoako Agyemang & Tomáš Ratinger & Miroslava Bavorová, 2022. "The Impact of Agricultural Input Subsidy on Productivity: The Case of Ghana," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(3), pages 1460-1485, June.
    10. Rougier, Eric & Combarnous, François & Fauré, Yves-André, 2018. "The “Local Economy” Effect of Social Transfers: An Empirical Assessment of the Impact of the Bolsa Família Program on Local Productive Structure and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 199-215.
    11. Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Lunduka, Rodney & Shively, Gerald & Jayne, Thom, 2014. "Comparing FISP to Alternative Programs," Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs 234942, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    12. Xing Ji & Jingwen Xu & Hongxiao Zhang, 2022. "How Does China’s New Rural Pension Scheme Affect Agricultural Production?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-23, July.
    13. Chatura Sewwandi Wijetunga & Katsuhiro Saito, 2017. "Evaluating the Fertilizer Subsidy Reforms in the Rice Production Sector in Sri Lanka: A Simulation Analysis," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-3.
    14. Henry Kankwamba & Mariam Kadzamira & Karl Pauw, 2018. "How diversified is cropping in Malawi? Patterns, determinants and policy implications," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(2), pages 323-338, April.
    15. Franziska Gassmann & Cecile Cherrier & Andrés Mideros Mora & Pierre Mohnen, 2013. "Making the Investment Case for Social Protection: Methodological challenges with lessons learnt from a recent study in Cambodia," Papers inwopa694, Innocenti Working Papers.
    16. Van Asselt, Joanna & Grogan, Kelly A., 2020. "Do Fertilizer Subsidies Improve Soil Quality: Myopic vs. Dynamic Analysis of Smallholder Farmers in Ghana," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304546, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Channing Arndt & Karl Pauw & James Thurlow, 2016. "The Economy-wide Impacts and Risks of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 962-980.
    18. J. Edward Taylor & Karen Thome & Mateusz Filipski & Benjamin Davis, 2014. "Productive Spillovers of Social Cash Transfers in Africa: A Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) Approach," One Pager 256, International Policy Centre.
    19. Gassmann,Franziska & Gentilini,Ugo & Morais,Julieta & Nunnenmacher,Conrad & Okamura,Yuko & Bordon,Giulio & Valleriani,Giorgia, 2023. "Is the Magic Happening ? A Systematic Literature Review of the Economic Multiplier of Cash Transfers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10529, The World Bank.
    20. Robinson, Sherman & Levy, Stephanie, 2014. "Can cash transfers promote the local economy? A case study for Cambodia," IFPRI discussion papers 1334, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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