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Determinants of the distance between sovereign credit ratings and sub-sovereign bond ratings: Evidence from emerging markets and developing economies

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  • Sanket Mohapatra
  • Manabu Nose
  • Dilip Ratha

Abstract

This article explores factors that affect the distance between sovereign credit ratings and the ratings assigned to new foreign-currency bonds issued by sub-sovereign entities (such as private non-financial corporations, financial firms, and public sector enterprises) in 47 emerging markets and developing economies. Censored and double-hurdle regression models are used to estimate the relative contributions of bond-level, issuer-level, and macroeconomic factors that determine this distance, separately for those rated at or below the sovereign rating and those rated above. For the three quarters or more of sub-sovereign bond ratings that are constrained by the sovereign rating ceiling, a Tobit regression model shows a smaller distance – suggesting stronger sovereign–corporate linkages – for public sector enterprises and financial firms relative to other firms. Riskier global financial conditions are also associated with sub-sovereign bonds being rated closer to the sovereign rating. For the small number of sub-sovereign bonds rated higher than the sovereign rating, a double-hurdle model shows that certain debt features – such as bonds backed by future-flow receivables or other collateral or structured as Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV) – significantly raise the likelihood of piercing the sovereign rating ceiling and also increase the distance above the sovereign ceiling.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanket Mohapatra & Manabu Nose & Dilip Ratha, 2018. "Determinants of the distance between sovereign credit ratings and sub-sovereign bond ratings: Evidence from emerging markets and developing economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 934-956, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:9:p:934-956
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1346364
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    Cited by:

    1. Aras, Osman Nuri & Öztürk, Mustafa, 2018. "The Effect of the Macroeconomic Determinants on Sovereign Credit Rating of Turkey," MPRA Paper 86642, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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