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Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

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  • Vitor Ozaki
  • Barry Goodwin
  • Ricardo Shirota

Abstract

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Parana. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

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  • Vitor Ozaki & Barry Goodwin & Ricardo Shirota, 2008. "Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(9), pages 1151-1164.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:9:p:1151-1164
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600749680
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Turvey, Calum G. & Zhao, Jinhua, 1999. "Parametric And Non-Parametric Crop Yield Distributions And Their Effects On All-Risk Crop Insurance Premiums," Working Papers 34129, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. Harwood, Joy L. & Heifner, Richard G. & Coble, Keith H. & Perry, Janet E. & Somwaru, Agapi, 1999. "Managing Risk in Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis," Agricultural Economic Reports 34081, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mengmeng Qiang & Manhong Shen & Guanjun Xia, 2023. "The effectiveness of weather index insurance in managing mariculture production risk," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(2), pages 245-262, April.
    2. Vitor Ozaki, 2009. "Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 231-242, May.
    3. Qiujie Zheng & H. Holly Wang & Qing Hua Shi, 2014. "Estimating bivariate yield distributions and crop insurance premiums using nonparametric methods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2108-2118, June.
    4. Osama Ahmed & Teresa Serra, 2015. "Economic analysis of the introduction of agricultural revenue insurance contracts in Spain using statistical copulas," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 69-79, January.
    5. Arora, Gaurav & Agarwal, Sandip K., 2020. "Agricultural input use and index insurance adoption: Concept and evidence," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304508, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Yong Liu & A. Ford Ramsey, 2023. "Incorporating historical weather information in crop insurance rating," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 546-575, March.
    7. Poudel, Mahadeb Prasad & Chen, Shwu-En & Ghimire, Raju, 2013. "Rice Yield Distribution and Risk Assessment in South Asian Countries: A Statistical Investigation," International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics, vol. 3(1), March.
    8. Park, Eunchun & Brorsen, B. Wade & Harri, Ardian, 2016. "Using Bayesian Spatial Smoothing and Extreme Value Theory to Develop Area-Yield Crop Insurance Rating," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235754, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Park, Eunchun & Brorsen, Wade & Harri, Ardian, 2017. "Spatially Smoothed Crop Yield Density Estimation: Physical Distance vs Climate Similarity," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259145, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Ozaki, Vitor & Campos, Rogério, 2017. "Reduzindo a Incerteza no Mercado de Seguros: Uma Abordagem via Informações de Sensoriamento Remoto e Atuária," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(4), December.
    11. Ozaki, Vitor Augusto & Olinda, Ricardo & Faria, Priscila Neves & Campos, Rogerio Costa, 2014. "Estimation of the Agricultural Probability of Loss: evidence for soybean in Paraná Stats," Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 52(1), pages 1-16, March.
    12. Upmanu Lall & Naresh Devineni & Yasir Kaheil, 2016. "An Empirical, Nonparametric Simulator for Multivariate Random Variables with Differing Marginal Densities and Nonlinear Dependence with Hydroclimatic Applications," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 57-73, January.
    13. Li, Hong & Porth, Lysa & Tan, Ken Seng & Zhu, Wenjun, 2021. "Improved index insurance design and yield estimation using a dynamic factor forecasting approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 208-221.
    14. Joseph Cooper & Carl Zulauf & Michael Langemeier & Gary Schnitkey, 2012. "Implications of within county yield heterogeneity for modeling crop insurance premiums," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 72(1), pages 134-155, May.
    15. Kuangyu Wen & Ximing Wu & David J. Leatham, 2021. "Spatially Smoothed Kernel Densities with Application to Crop Yield Distributions," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 26(3), pages 349-366, September.
    16. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Shi, Guanming, 2015. "An Economic Analysis of Risk, Management, and Agricultural Technology," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-17.
    17. Chunli, Wan & Dongli, Wu, 2021. "Nonparametric Estimation of Farmers’ Willingness to Accept: Implication for Calculating Crop Insurance Amount," 2021 ASAE 10th International Conference (Virtual), January 11-13, Beijing, China 329428, Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE).
    18. Ghahremanzadeh, Mohammad & Mohammadrezaei, Rassul & Dashti, Ghader & Ainollahi, Moharram, 2018. "Designing a whole-farm revenue insurance for agricultural crops in Zanjan province of Iran," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(02), January.

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