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Unemployment Fluctuations in the UK: 1958-92

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  • Terence Mills
  • Gianluigi Pelloni
  • Athina Zervoyianni

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of a reduced-form unemployment equation for the UK using annual data from 1958 to 1992. It extends previous work by using modern time series econometrics, by focusing on variables that bring about fluctuations around the natural rate as well as variables that determine it, and by using a measure of sectoral reallocation purged of demand influences. The resulting equation has stable parameters which are readily interpretable in terms of the underlying theories of unemployment fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Terence Mills & Gianluigi Pelloni & Athina Zervoyianni, 1997. "Unemployment Fluctuations in the UK: 1958-92," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 253-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:4:y:1997:i:4:p:253-255
    DOI: 10.1080/758518505
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    2. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivo De Loo, 2000. "The Applicability of the Sectoral Shift Hypothesis in the Netherlands," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 3, pages 57-69, May.
    2. Gianluigi Pelloni & Wolfgang Polasek, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Sectoral Shocks in Germany, The U.K. and, The U.S. A VAR-GARCH-M Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 65-85, February.
    3. Mills, Terence C. & Pelloni, Gianluigi & Zervoyianni, Athina, 1996. "Cyclical unemployment and sectoral shifts: Further tests of the Lilien hypothesis for the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-60, July.
    4. De Loo, Ivo, 1998. "Fables of Faubus?: Testing the Sectoral Shift Hypothesis in the Netherlands Using a Simplified Kalman Filter Model," Research Memorandum 002, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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