Predicting the presidential election cycle in US stock prices: guinea pigs versus the pros
The notion that US stock prices follow a pattern that is synchronized with presidential elections has been discussed among financial investors for a long time. Academic work exists that supports this idea, quantifies the pattern and has demonstrated its robustness over several decades and across parties in power. This article takes the existence and robustness of this presidential election cycle for granted and asks whether individuals exploit it when they predict stock prices. It considers and contrasts two types of such forecasts: Those made by professionals included in the Livingston survey and those made by students in a laboratory experiment. A key result is that neither group fares particularly well, though participants in the experiment outperformed the professionals.
Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 18 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEL20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Booth, James R. & Booth, Lena Chua, 2003. "Is presidential cycle in security returns merely a reflection of business conditions?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 131-159.
- Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Seasonal Movements in Security Prices II: Weekend, Holiday, Turn of the Month, and Intraday Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-77, Fall.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007.
"Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market,"
NBER Working Papers
13189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Umstead, David A, 1977. "Forecasting Stock Market Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 427-41, May.
- Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy, 2007.
"Disagreement and the Stock Market,"
2894690, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-28, September.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
- Ernan Haruvy & Yaron Lahav & Charles N. Noussair, 2007. "Traders' Expectations in Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1901-1920, December.
- Gartner, Manfred & Wellershoff, Klaus W., 1995. "Is there an election cycle in American stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 387-410.
- Wong, Wing-Keung & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Mapping the Presidential Election Cycle in US stock markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(11), pages 3267-3277.
- Dokko, Yoon & Edelstein, Robert H, 1989. "How Well Do Economists Forecast Stock Market Prices? A Study of the Livingston Surveys," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 865-71, September.
- Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2007. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 244-249, May.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1989. "A Mean-Reverting Walk Down Wall Street," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 189-202, Winter.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:18:p:1759-1765. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.