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Rethinking Graduation and Time to Degree: A Fresh Perspective

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  • Hongtao Yue

    (California State University, Fresno)

  • Xuanning Fu

    (California State University, Fresno)

Abstract

Graduation and time to degree are paramount concerns in higher education today and have caught the attention of policy makers, educators and researchers in recent years. However, our understanding is limited regarding the factors related to graduation and time to degree beyond students’ pre-college characteristics (demographics and academic preparation), especially how student decision and performance in college affect their graduation. This study employs longitudinal data and applies event history analysis to track 12,096 first-time freshmen in a large public university from 2002 to 2014. Students’ academic progress is conceptualized into eight time-dependent variables whose values change over time, including major status (major change, double majors/minors and major declaration), enrollment intensity (enrolled term units and extra enrollment), and academic performance (term GPA, cumulative units and cumulative GPA). Discrete-time hazard models were used to answer the following question: beyond pre-college characteristics, what aspects of students’ decisions on majors and enrollment and their performance affect graduation and time to degree? The findings reveal that academic performance is the most important factor, followed by students’ decisions on majors (such as having double majors/minors). Pre-college characteristics only accounted for a very small proportion of the total variance after students’ performance and decisions are controlled. The study goes further in investigating how the effects of these factors change over time by enrolled terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongtao Yue & Xuanning Fu, 2017. "Rethinking Graduation and Time to Degree: A Fresh Perspective," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 58(2), pages 184-213, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reihed:v:58:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11162-016-9420-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11162-016-9420-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Ching-Hui Lin & Jyun-Hong Chen & Eric S. Lin & C. Owen Lo, 2022. "The Effects of College Student Experience on Degree Aspirations for Graduate Education," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, August.
    4. Corsi, Matteo & di Bella, Enrico & Persico, Luca, 2024. "A reassessment of graduation modeling for policy design," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Nick Huntington-Klein & Andrew Gill, 2021. "Semester Course Load and Student Performance," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 62(5), pages 623-650, August.
    6. Vivian Liu & Soumya Mishra & Elizabeth M. Kopko, 2021. "Major Decision: The Impact of Major Switching on Academic Outcomes in Community Colleges," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 62(4), pages 498-527, June.
    7. John M Aiken & Riccardo De Bin & Morten Hjorth-Jensen & Marcos D Caballero, 2020. "Predicting time to graduation at a large enrollment American university," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-28, November.
    8. Jasmin Meyer & Kathrin Leuze & Susanne Strauss, 2022. "Individual Achievement, Person-Major Fit, or Social Expectations: Why Do Students Switch Majors in German Higher Education?," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 63(2), pages 222-247, March.
    9. Miguel BAIÃO & Edviges COELHO & Isabel DUARTE & Maciej CHRZANOWSKI, 2022. "Assessing Socioeconomic Variables in HRM Individual Academic Performance," Management Research and Practice, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(3), pages 70-83, September.
    10. Serge Atherwood & Gabriela Sánchez-Soto, 2023. "Does Social Class Matter Equally for the Timely Transition Into and Out of College? Evidence from the NLSY97," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 64(1), pages 95-128, February.

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