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An integrated assessment of INDCs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: an implementation of C3IAM

Author

Listed:
  • Yi-Ming Wei

    () (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Rong Han

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Qiao-Mei Liang

    () (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Bi-Ying Yu

    () (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Yun-Fei Yao

    (Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Mei-Mei Xue

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Kun Zhang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Li-Jing Liu

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Juan Peng

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Pu Yang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Zhi-Fu Mi

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    University College London)

  • Yun-Fei Du

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Ce Wang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Jun-Jie Chang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Qian-Ru Yang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Zili Yang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    State University of New York at Binghamton)

  • Xueli Shi

    (The National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration)

  • Wei Xie

    (Peking University)

  • Changyi Liu

    (The National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration)

  • Zhongyu Ma

    (The National Information Center of National Development and Reform Commission)

  • Jinxiao Tan

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Weizheng Wang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Bao-Jun Tang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Yun-Fei Cao

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Mingquan Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Jin-Wei Wang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Jia-Ning Kang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Ke Wang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Hua Liao

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

Abstract

Abstract A series of global actions have been made to address climate change. As a recent developed climate policy, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) have renewed attention to the importance of exploring temperature rise levels lower than 2 °C, in particular a long-term limit of 1.5 °C, compared to the preindustrial level. Nonetheless, achieving the 2 °C target under the current INDCs depends on dynamic socioeconomic development pathways. Therefore, this study conducts an integrated assessment of INDCs by taking into account different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To that end, the CEEP-BIT research community develops the China’s Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model (C3IAM) to assess the climate change under SSPs in the context of with and without INDCs. Three SSPs, including “a green growth strategy” (SSP1), “a more middle-of-the-road development pattern” (SSP2) and “further fragmentation between regions” (SSP3) form the focus of this study. Results show that after considering INDCs, mitigation costs become very low and they have no evident positive changes in three SSPs. In 2100, a temperature rise would occur in SSP1-3, which is 3.20, 3.48 and 3.59 °C, respectively. There are long-term difficulties to keep warming well below 2 °C and pursue efforts toward 1.5 °C target even under INDCs. A drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is needed in order to mitigate potentially catastrophic climate change impacts. This work contributes on realizing the hard link between the earth and socioeconomic systems, as well as extending the economic models by coupling the global CGE model with the economic optimum growth model. In C3IAM, China’s energy consumption and emissions pattern are investigated and refined. This study can provide policy makers and the public a better understanding about pathways through which different scenarios could unfold toward 2100, highlights the real mitigation and adaption challenges faced by climate change and can lead to formulating effective policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi-Ming Wei & Rong Han & Qiao-Mei Liang & Bi-Ying Yu & Yun-Fei Yao & Mei-Mei Xue & Kun Zhang & Li-Jing Liu & Juan Peng & Pu Yang & Zhi-Fu Mi & Yun-Fei Du & Ce Wang & Jun-Jie Chang & Qian-Ru Yang & Zil, 2018. "An integrated assessment of INDCs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: an implementation of C3IAM," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 585-618, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:92:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3297-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3297-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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