IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v91y2018i3d10.1007_s11069-017-3163-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing macroeconomic recovery after a natural hazard based on ARIMA—a case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yingqi Zhu

    (Beijing Normal University
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Ying Wang

    (Beijing Normal University
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Tianxue Liu

    (Beijing Normal University
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Qi Sui

    (Beijing Normal University
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

Abstract

In this research the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was adopted to estimate GDP growth for assessing macroeconomic recovery from a natural hazard. ARIMA is a powerful tool for predicting future macroeconomic situations based on macroeconomic data and trends before a disaster. This research examined the economic recovery of severely affected counties 6 years after the Wenchuan Earthquake by comparing the simulated regional GDP values from 2008 to 2014 with actual regional GDP data following the disaster. A macroeconomic recovery ratio model was built to assess economic resilience of the affected counties. Although the GDP of the 10 most severely affected counties grew rapidly after the earthquake, in only one county—Pengzhou City—it recovered to the pre-disaster level under a no hazard scenario. The gaps in economic recovery between the severely affected counties were significant. Areas with competitive industries and locational advantage exhibited the highest rates of recovery. Therefore, industrial structure and relative location of the affected areas to traffic nodes and economic centers should be considered in pre-disaster assistance decisions and development plans in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Yingqi Zhu & Ying Wang & Tianxue Liu & Qi Sui, 2018. "Assessing macroeconomic recovery after a natural hazard based on ARIMA—a case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1025-1038, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:91:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3163-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3163-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-017-3163-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-017-3163-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Walter Gillis Peacock & Shannon Van Zandt & Yang Zhang & Wesley E. Highfield, 2014. "Inequities in Long-Term Housing Recovery After Disasters," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 80(4), pages 356-371, October.
    2. Yu Xiao, 2011. "Local Economic Impacts Of Natural Disasters," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 804-820, October.
    3. Thomas Fomby & Yuki Ikeda & Norman V. Loayza, 2013. "The Growth Aftermath Of Natural Disasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 412-434, April.
    4. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, December.
    6. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    7. Julie Zissimopoulos & Lynn Karoly, 2010. "Employment and self-employment in the wake of Hurricane Katrina," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(2), pages 345-367, May.
    8. Ajay Chhibber & Rachid Laajaj, 0. "Disasters, Climate Change and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons and Directions," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(suppl_2), pages -49.
    9. Aijun Hu & Wei Xie & Ning Li & Xuanhua Xu & Zhonghui Ji & Jidong Wu, 2014. "Analyzing regional economic impact and resilience: a case study on electricity outages caused by the 2008 snowstorms in southern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(2), pages 1019-1030, January.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    11. Marco Modica & Aura Reggiani, 2015. "Spatial Economic Resilience: Overview and Perspectives," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 211-233, June.
    12. Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
    13. Robert A. Baade & Robert Baumann & Victor Matheson, 2007. "Estimating the Economic Impact of Natural and Social Disasters, with an Application to Hurricane Katrina," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(11), pages 2061-2076, October.
    14. Lisa K. Zottarelli, 2008. "Post‐Hurricane Katrina Employment Recovery: The Interaction of Race and Place," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 89(3), pages 592-607, September.
    15. Lino Briguglio & Gordon Cordina & Nadia Farrugia & Stephanie Vella, 2009. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 229-247.
    16. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2014. "Economic resilience: definition and measurement," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6852, The World Bank.
    17. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
    18. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
    19. Hochrainer, Stefan, 2009. "Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of natural disasters : are there any ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4968, The World Bank.
    20. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters - A Survey," Working Papers 200919, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    21. Mostafa Dastorani & Mohammad Mirzavand & Mohammad Taghi Dastorani & Seyyed Javad Sadatinejad, 2016. "Comparative study among different time series models applied to monthly rainfall forecasting in semi-arid climate condition," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1811-1827, April.
    22. Mr. Tobias N. Rasmussen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2004/224, International Monetary Fund.
    23. JiYoung Park & Joongkoo Cho & Adam Rose, 2011. "Modeling a major source of economic resilience to disasters: recapturing lost production," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 163-182, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jihye Min & Birendra KC & Seungman Kim & Jaehoon Lee, 2020. "The Impact of Disasters on a Heritage Tourist Destination: A Case Study of Nepal Earthquakes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-12, July.
    2. Tendai Makoni & Delson Chikobvu, 2023. "Evaluating and Predicting the Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Manufacturing Sales within South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Pengyang Zhang & Yanmei Huang & Sipei Pan & Wanxu Chen & Hui Zhong & Ning Xu & Mingxing Zhong, 2022. "Does Resilience Exist in China’s Tourism Economy? From the Perspectives of Resistance and Recoverability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Ayyoob Sharifi, 2020. "Urban Resilience Assessment: Mapping Knowledge Structure and Trends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-18, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kousky, Carolyn, 2012. "Informing Climate Adaptation: A Review of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters, Their Determinants, and Risk Reduction Options," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-28, Resources for the Future.
    2. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters - A Survey," Working Papers 200919, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    3. Davide Antonioli & Alberto Marzucchi & Marco Modica, 2022. "Resilience, Performance and Strategies in Firms’ Reactions to the Direct and Indirect Effects of a Natural Disaster," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 541-565, September.
    4. Giulia Bettin & Alberto Zazzaro, 2018. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Remittances to Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 481-500, March.
    5. Dieppe,Alistair Matthew & Kilic Celik,Sinem & Okou,Cedric Iltis Finafa, 2020. "Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9411, The World Bank.
    6. Ruohan Wu, 2023. "Natural disasters, climate change, and structural transformation: A new perspective from international trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1333-1377, May.
    7. Rémi Generoso, 2012. "Transferts de fonds et résilience des pays d'Afrique de l'Ouest face à la variabilité des précipitations : une perspective macroéconomique," Working Papers hal-00830021, HAL.
    8. William Ginn, 2022. "Climate Disasters and the Macroeconomy: Does State-Dependence Matter? Evidence for the US," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 141-161, March.
    9. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2014. "Natural disasters and macroeconomic performance: The role of residential investment," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 194 [rev.], University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    10. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Brei, Michael & Mohan, Preeya & Strobl, Eric, 2019. "The impact of natural disasters on the banking sector: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Caribbean," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 232-239.
    12. Francesco Porcelli & Riccardo Trezzi, 2019. "The impact of earthquakes on economic activity: evidence from Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1167-1206, April.
    13. Carmen Camacho & Yu Sun, 2017. "Longterm decision making under the threat of earthquakes," Working Papers halshs-01670507, HAL.
    14. Jihye Min & Birendra KC & Seungman Kim & Jaehoon Lee, 2020. "The Impact of Disasters on a Heritage Tourist Destination: A Case Study of Nepal Earthquakes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-12, July.
    15. Tam Bang Vu & Calvin Luscombe & Shaun McKim, 2014. "Natural Disasters in Japan and Tourism in Developing Countries: The Case of the Pacific Islands," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 98-107.
    16. Giorgio Di Pietro & Toni Mora, 2015. "The effect of the L’Aquila earthquake on labour market outcomes," Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 33(2), pages 239-255, April.
    17. Matthew A. COLE & Robert J R ELLIOTT & OKUBO Toshihiro & Eric STROBL, 2013. "Natural Disasters and Plant Survival: The impact of the Kobe earthquake," Discussion papers 13063, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "Modeling the roles of heterogeneity, substitution, and inventories in the assessment of natural disaster economic costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6047, The World Bank.
    19. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2014. "Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 92-106.
    20. Matthew A. COLE & Robert J R ELLIOTT & OKUBO Toshihiro & Eric STROBL, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Industrial Clusters and Manufacturing Plant Survival," Discussion papers 15008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:91:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3163-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.