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Analyzing regional economic impact and resilience: a case study on electricity outages caused by the 2008 snowstorms in southern China

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  • Aijun Hu
  • Wei Xie
  • Ning Li
  • Xuanhua Xu
  • Zhonghui Ji
  • Jidong Wu

Abstract

When we think about the loss caused by natural disasters, we generally think about the direct economic loss. Although the direct economic loss is often obvious, the subsequent indirect economic loss can also be quite substantial. This research is a case study about the indirect economic impact of the Hunan electricity disruptions resulting from the 2008 snowstorms in southern China. Utilizing the computable general equilibrium model, this study shows that the indirect economic loss in Hunan Province resulting from electricity supply disruptions is estimated at USD 372 million over a 3-month recovery period. We also compare our results with other studies that use input–output models and discuss how the total regional economic resilience can mitigate economic losses through market substitutions and price changes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Aijun Hu & Wei Xie & Ning Li & Xuanhua Xu & Zhonghui Ji & Jidong Wu, 2014. "Analyzing regional economic impact and resilience: a case study on electricity outages caused by the 2008 snowstorms in southern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(2), pages 1019-1030, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:70:y:2014:i:2:p:1019-1030
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0858-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam Rose & Gauri-Shankar Guha, 2004. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Electric Utility Lifeline Losses from Earthquakes," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Stephanie E. Chang (ed.), Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 119-141, Springer.
    2. Adam Rose & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2005. "Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 75-112, February.
    3. Hirokazu Tatano & Satoshi Tsuchiya, 2008. "A framework for economic loss estimation due to seismic transportation network disruption: a spatial computable general equilibrium approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(2), pages 253-265, February.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhang, Hailing & Liu, Changxin & Wang, Can, 2021. "Extreme climate events and economic impacts in China: A CGE analysis with a new damage function in IAM," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Pradeep V. Mandapaka & Edmond Y. M. Lo, 2023. "Assessing Shock Propagation and Cascading Uncertainties Using the Input–Output Framework: Analysis of an Oil Refinery Accident in Singapore," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Qian Li & Liutong Chen & Zhengtao Yan & Yingjun Xu, 2022. "Exploration of Copula Models Use in Risk Assessment for Freezing and Snow Events: A Case Study in Southern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-12, February.
    5. Yingqi Zhu & Ying Wang & Tianxue Liu & Qi Sui, 2018. "Assessing macroeconomic recovery after a natural hazard based on ARIMA—a case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1025-1038, April.
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    7. Yao, Qianyi & Fan, Ruguo & Chen, Rongkai & Qian, Rourou, 2023. "A model of the enterprise supply chain risk propagation based on partially mapping two-layer complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 613(C).

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