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Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis

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  • Corene Matyas
  • Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan
  • Ignatius Cahyanto
  • Brijesh Thapa
  • Lori Pennington-Gray
  • Jorge Villegas

Abstract

Though most hurricane evacuation studies have focused on residents, tourists are also a vulnerable population. To assess their perceptions of risk and evacuation likelihood under different hurricane conditions, we surveyed 448 tourists visiting central Florida. Respondents viewed four maps emulating track forecast cones produced by the National Hurricane Center and text information featuring variations of storm intensity, coast of landfall, centerline position relative to the survey site, time until landfall, and event duration. We performed chi-square tests to determine which hurricane conditions, and aspects of tourists such as their demographics and previous hurricane experience, most likely influenced their ratings of risk and evacuation likelihood for respondents located on Pinellas County beaches or inland near Orlando, FL. Highly rated scenarios featured a Category 4 hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast with the centerline passing over the sampling site. Overall, tourists that indicated the highest risk and evacuation ratings were not previously affected by a hurricane, had a trip duration of less than 6 days, and had checked for the possibility of a hurricane strike before departure. However, results for other tourist attributes differed between tourists in coastal and inland locations. We found that although somewhat knowledgeable about hurricanes, tourists misinterpreted the track forecast cone and hurricane conditions, which led to a lower perception of risk and subsequent likelihood to evacuate. Tourists, particularly those from outside of Florida, need to be better educated about the risks they face from hurricanes that make landfall. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Corene Matyas & Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan & Ignatius Cahyanto & Brijesh Thapa & Lori Pennington-Gray & Jorge Villegas, 2011. "Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 871-890, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:59:y:2011:i:2:p:871-890
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9801-0
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    2. Cahyanto, Ignatius & Pennington-Gray, Lori & Thapa, Brijesh & Srinivasan, Siva & Villegas, Jorge & Matyas, Corene & Kiousis, Spiro, 2016. "Predicting information seeking regarding hurricane evacuation in the destination," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 264-275.
    3. Wenchao Zhang & Wei Wang & Junfen Lin & Ying Zhang & Xiaopeng Shang & Xin Wang & Meilin Huang & Shike Liu & Wei Ma, 2017. "Perception, Knowledge and Behaviors Related to Typhoon: A Cross Sectional Study among Rural Residents in Zhejiang, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-12, May.
    4. Guy Wachtel & Jan-Dirk Schmöcker & Yuval Hadas & Yuhan Gao & Oren E Nahum & Boaz Ben-Moshe, 2021. "Planning for tourist urban evacuation routes: A framework for improving the data collection and evacuation processes," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(5), pages 1108-1125, June.
    5. Dingde Xu & Wenfeng Zhou & Xin Deng & Zhixing Ma & Zhuolin Yong & Cheng Qin, 2020. "Information credibility, disaster risk perception and evacuation willingness of rural households in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2865-2882, September.
    6. Samanthi Durage & Lina Kattan & S. Wirasinghe & Janaka Ruwanpura, 2014. "Evacuation behaviour of households and drivers during a tornado," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1495-1517, April.
    7. Maja Turnšek & Mitja Gorenak & Boštjan Brumen & Janez Mekinc & Marjetka Rangus & Tanja Lešnik Štuhec, 2020. "Perceived Threat of COVID-19 and Future Travel Avoidance: Results from an Early Convenient Sample in Slovenia," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 3-19.
    8. Rebecca R. Thompson & Dana Rose Garfin & Roxane Cohen Silver, 2017. "Evacuation from Natural Disasters: A Systematic Review of the Literature," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 812-839, April.
    9. Matthew Billman & Kayode Atoba & Courtney Thompson & Samuel Brody, 2023. "How about Now? Changes in Risk Perception before and after Hurricane Irma," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, May.
    10. Jian Li & Kaan Ozbay & Bekir Bartin, 2015. "Effects of Hurricanes Irene and Sandy in New Jersey: traffic patterns and highway disruptions during evacuations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 2081-2107, September.
    11. Dean Kyne & William Donner, 2018. "Kyne–Donner Model of Authority’s Recommendation and Hurricane Evacuation Decisions: A Study of Hypothetical Hurricane Event in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 897-922, December.
    12. Schroeder, Ashley & Pennington-Gray, Lori & Kaplanidou, Kiki & Zhan, Fangzi, 2013. "Destination risk perceptions among U.S. residents for London as the host city of the 2012 Summer Olympic Games," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 107-119.
    13. Maja Turnšek & Mitja Gorenak & Boštjan Brumen & Janez Mekinc & Marjetka Rangus & Tanja Lešnik Štuhec, 2020. "Perceived Threat of COVID-19 and Future Travel Avoidance: Results from an Early Convenient Sample in Slovenia," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 3-19.
    14. Junji Urata & Adam J. Pel, 2018. "People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(5), pages 889-905, May.
    15. Miguel Esteban & Jeremy Bricker & Ricardo San Carlos Arce & Hiroshi Takagi & NamYi Yun & Warathida Chaiyapa & Alexander Sjoegren & Tomoya Shibayama, 2018. "Tsunami awareness: a comparative assessment between Japan and the USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1507-1528, September.
    16. Amy Cardinal Christianson & Tara K. McGee, 2019. "Wildfire evacuation experiences of band members of Whitefish Lake First Nation 459, Alberta, Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(1), pages 9-29, August.
    17. Lori Pennington-Gray & Kiki Kaplanidou & Ashley Schroeder, 2013. "Drivers of social media use among African Americans in the event of a crisis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(1), pages 77-95, March.
    18. Julie L. Demuth, 2018. "Explicating Experience: Development of a Valid Scale of Past Hazard Experience for Tornadoes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1921-1943, September.
    19. Lianying Yao & Jinchi Shen & Fuying Zhang & Xinbing Gu & Shuli Jiang, 2021. "Influence of Environmental Values on the Typhoon Risk Perceptions of High School Students: A Case Study in Ningbo, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, April.
    20. Ting Que & Yuxin Wu & Shiyu Hu & Jianmin Cai & Nan Jiang & Huige Xing, 2022. "Factors Influencing Public Participation in Community Disaster Mitigation Activities: A Comparison of Model and Nonmodel Disaster Mitigation Communities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-18, September.
    21. Thapa, Brijesh & Cahyanto, Ignatius & Holland, Stephen M. & Absher, James D., 2013. "Wildfires and tourist behaviors in Florida," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 284-292.
    22. Yajing Shen & Shiyan Lou & Xiujuan Zhao & Kuai Peng Ip & Hui Xu & Jingwen Zhang, 2020. "Factors Impacting Risk Perception under Typhoon Disaster in Macao SAR, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-24, October.
    23. Resti Tito Villarino, 2023. "Online Typhoon Preparedness and Mitigation Program: Fitness-for-Purpose Process," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 43(1), pages 647-667, May.
    24. Jorge Villegas & Corene Matyas & Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan & Ignatius Cahyanto & Brijesh Thapa & Lori Pennington-Gray, 2013. "Cognitive and affective responses of Florida tourists after exposure to hurricane warning messages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(1), pages 97-116, March.

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