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Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis

Author

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  • Corene Matyas

    ()

  • Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan
  • Ignatius Cahyanto
  • Brijesh Thapa
  • Lori Pennington-Gray
  • Jorge Villegas

Abstract

Though most hurricane evacuation studies have focused on residents, tourists are also a vulnerable population. To assess their perceptions of risk and evacuation likelihood under different hurricane conditions, we surveyed 448 tourists visiting central Florida. Respondents viewed four maps emulating track forecast cones produced by the National Hurricane Center and text information featuring variations of storm intensity, coast of landfall, centerline position relative to the survey site, time until landfall, and event duration. We performed chi-square tests to determine which hurricane conditions, and aspects of tourists such as their demographics and previous hurricane experience, most likely influenced their ratings of risk and evacuation likelihood for respondents located on Pinellas County beaches or inland near Orlando, FL. Highly rated scenarios featured a Category 4 hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast with the centerline passing over the sampling site. Overall, tourists that indicated the highest risk and evacuation ratings were not previously affected by a hurricane, had a trip duration of less than 6 days, and had checked for the possibility of a hurricane strike before departure. However, results for other tourist attributes differed between tourists in coastal and inland locations. We found that although somewhat knowledgeable about hurricanes, tourists misinterpreted the track forecast cone and hurricane conditions, which led to a lower perception of risk and subsequent likelihood to evacuate. Tourists, particularly those from outside of Florida, need to be better educated about the risks they face from hurricanes that make landfall. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Corene Matyas & Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan & Ignatius Cahyanto & Brijesh Thapa & Lori Pennington-Gray & Jorge Villegas, 2011. "Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 871-890, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:59:y:2011:i:2:p:871-890
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9801-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dowling, Grahame R & Staelin, Richard, 1994. " A Model of Perceived Risk and Intended Risk-Handling Activity," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 119-134, June.
    2. Margarethe Kusenbach & Jason Simms & Graham Tobin, 2010. "Disaster vulnerability and evacuation readiness: coastal mobile home residents in Florida," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(1), pages 79-95, January.
    3. Michael Lindell & Carla Prater, 2007. "A hurricane evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(3), pages 627-634, March.
    4. Eva Regnier, 2008. "Public Evacuation Decisions and Hurricane Track Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 16-28, January.
    5. John Whitehead, 2005. "Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Jointly Estimated Revealed and Stated Behavior Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(3), pages 301-316, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:touman:v:52:y:2016:i:c:p:264-275 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Samanthi Durage & Lina Kattan & S. Wirasinghe & Janaka Ruwanpura, 2014. "Evacuation behaviour of households and drivers during a tornado," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1495-1517, April.
    3. repec:eee:touman:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:284-292 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jian Li & Kaan Ozbay & Bekir Bartin, 2015. "Effects of Hurricanes Irene and Sandy in New Jersey: traffic patterns and highway disruptions during evacuations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 2081-2107, September.
    5. repec:eee:touman:v:38:y:2013:i:c:p:107-119 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spr:nathaz:v:93:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3365-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jorge Villegas & Corene Matyas & Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan & Ignatius Cahyanto & Brijesh Thapa & Lori Pennington-Gray, 2013. "Cognitive and affective responses of Florida tourists after exposure to hurricane warning messages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(1), pages 97-116, March.

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