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People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

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  • Junji Urata
  • Adam J. Pel

Abstract

Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate.

Suggested Citation

  • Junji Urata & Adam J. Pel, 2018. "People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(5), pages 889-905, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:5:p:889-905
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Yixuan Wei & Mengcan Wang & Minrui Ni & Ying Cui & Tianmei Sun & Chunqing Wang & Song Pan, 2026. "Research on individual differences in risk preferences for personnel evacuation during flood disasters in underground spaces," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 122(1), pages 1-24, January.
    3. Wong, Stephen D & Chorus, Caspar G & Shaheen, Susan A & Walker, Joan L, 2020. "A Revealed Preference Methodology to Evaluate Regret Minimization with Challenging Choice Sets: A Wildfire Evacuation Case Study," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2k12q9ph, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    4. Wong, Stephen D & Yu, Mengqiao & Kuncheria, Anu & Shaheen, Susan A & Walker, Joan L, 2022. "Willingness of Hurricane Irma evacuees to share resources: a multi-modeling approach," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt70g3c3nk, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    5. Andrea Cerase & Lorenzo Cugliari, 2023. "Something Still Remains: Factors Affecting Tsunami Risk Perception on the Coasts Hit by the Reggio Calabria-Messina 1908 Event (Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-26, February.

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