IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/minecn/v36y2023i3d10.1007_s13563-022-00353-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do efficient commodity markets co-move: evidence from Indian base metals market

Author

Listed:
  • Rakesh Shahani

    (Dr Bhim Rao Ambedkar College)

  • Utkarsh Singhal

    (Dr Bhim Rao Ambedkar College)

Abstract

The present study is an attempt to investigate in Indian context two important issues with respect to base metals (these are primarily non-ferrous metals), first to test whether the market for base metals is efficient like other financial markets and second to explore a possibility of any co-integration in prices amongst these base metals. To this end, we collect daily closing prices of five base metals, viz. aluminum, copper, zinc, lead and nickel for the study period Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. The methodology involves three different co-integration tests and two different ‘Day of the Week’ (market efficiency) tests. The results of the study showed that co-integration existed only when aluminium was taken as dependent variable with other metals as forcing variables. Also, no co-integration existed for other four base metals and these results were confirmed by both Engle-Granger and Gregory-Hansen tests; however, Johansen test failed to reveal any co-integration amongst any of these metals. Furthermore, test of market efficiency using ‘Day of the Week’ methodology, with Dummy OLS and GARCH(p,q) approaches, revealed that market for all the metals was efficient except copper. The study also tested model building pre-requisites of stationarity and serial correlation of variables and found these to be satisfactory. The results of the study thus revealed that copper’s prices showed market inefficiency which if exploited could provide a big opportunity for investors, traders and speculators to make profits. Market for remaining four metals was found to be efficient thus making profits difficult; however, these metals can be considered in combination with other financial assets to explore the unexplored opportunities in these markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Rakesh Shahani & Utkarsh Singhal, 2023. "Do efficient commodity markets co-move: evidence from Indian base metals market," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(3), pages 413-425, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:36:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s13563-022-00353-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s13563-022-00353-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13563-022-00353-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13563-022-00353-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben Jacobsen & Ben R. Marshall & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2019. "Stock Market Predictability and Industrial Metal Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(7), pages 3026-3042, July.
    2. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Vinh Vo, Xuan & Hoon Kang, Sang, 2021. "Volatility spillovers between oil and equity markets and portfolio risk implications in the US and vulnerable EU countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li, 2008. "Asymmetric effect of basis on dynamic futures hedging: Empirical evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 187-198, February.
    4. Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "Spillovers, integration and causality in LME non-ferrous metal markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Nidhi Choudhary & Girish K. Nair & Harsh Purohit, 2015. "Volatility In Copper Prices In India," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, December.
    7. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yuan, Yuan, 2008. "Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 606-620, March.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
    10. Agyei-Ampomah, Sam & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Mazouz, Khelifa, 2014. "Does gold offer a better protection against losses in sovereign debt bonds than other metals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 507-521.
    11. Managi, Shunsuke & Yousfi, Mohamed & Ben Zaied, Younes & Ben Mabrouk, Nejah & Ben Lahouel, Béchir, 2022. "Oil price, US stock market and the US business conditions in the era of COVID-19 pandemic outbreak," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 129-139.
    12. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2013. "A study on the Price Behavior of Base Metals traded in India," MPRA Paper 47028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernandez, Viviana & Pastén-Henríquez, Boris & Tapia-Griñen, Pablo & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2023. "Commodity prices under the threat of operational disruptions: Labor strikes at copper mines," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    2. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    3. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Zheng, Xinwei, 2010. "Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3299-3303, October.
    5. Phengpis, Chanwit, 2006. "Market efficiency and cointegration of spot exchange rates during periods of economic turmoil: Another look at European and Asian currency crises," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 323-342.
    6. Sascha Keil, 2021. "The Challenging Estimation Of Trade Elasticities:Tackling The Inconclusive Eurozone Evidence," Chemnitz Economic Papers 042, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised May 2021.
    7. Norman J. Morin, 2006. "Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Rabindra Nepal & John Foster, 2016. "Testing for Market Integration in the Australian National Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(4), pages 215-238, October.
    9. Aaron Smallwood & Stefan C. Norrbin, 2008. "An Encompassing Test of Real Interest Rate Equalization," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 114-126, February.
    10. Phengpis, Chanwit & Apilado, Vince P., 2004. "Economic interdependence and common stochastic trends: A comparative analysis between EMU and non-EMU stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 245-263.
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Environmental Kuznets curve in an open economy: A bounds testing and causality analysis for Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 325-336.
    12. Li, Qiaoling & Pan, Jiazhu & Yao, Qiwei, 2009. "On determination of cointegration ranks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24106, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Breitung, Jorg & Hassler, Uwe, 2002. "Inference on the cointegration rank in fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 167-185, October.
    14. Tang, Chor-Foon & Lau, Evan, 2011. "The Behaviour of Disaggregated Public Expenditures and Income in Malaysia," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-13, March.
    15. Sarwar, Muhammad Nadeem & Hussain, Hamid & Maqbool, Muhammad Bilal, 2020. "Pass through effects of oil price on food and non-food prices in Pakistan: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Philip, Dennis & Shi, Yukun, 2016. "Optimal hedging in carbon emission markets using Markov regime switching models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-15.
    17. Stefan Norrbin & Aaron Smallwood, 2010. "Generalized long memory and mean reversion of the real exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1377-1386.
    18. Lasak, Katarzyna, 2010. "Likelihood based testing for no fractional cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 67-77, September.
    19. Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, "undated". "Detection and attribution of climate change through econometric methods," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-015, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    20. Gabriel Pons Rotger, 2000. "Temporal Aggregation and Ordinary Least Squares Estimation of Cointegrating Regressions," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1317, Econometric Society.
    21. Marie-Josée Godbout & Simon van Norden, 1996. "Unit-Root Test and Excess Returns," Staff Working Papers 96-10, Bank of Canada.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:36:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s13563-022-00353-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.