IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tch/wpaper/cep042.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Challenging Estimation Of Trade Elasticities:Tackling The Inconclusive Eurozone Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Sascha Keil

    (Technische Universitaet Chemnitz, Fakultaet für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Professur für Wirtschaftspolitik, Sascha Keil, 09107 Chemnitz (Germany))

Abstract

This paper sheds light on serious methodological difficulties of employing the empiric export equation in order to derive long-run trade elasticities. The unreliable estimated price coefficient (Kaldor Paradox) and the potential presence of cointegrationare identified as the most relevant points. It can be shown that difficulties are in part due to methodological issues. New empirical evidence, encompassing eleven Euro area countries and the timespan 1995–2019, has been obtained from different cointegration techniques. In seven out of eleven cases a robust long-run relationship can be detected and price elasticity was consistently found being significant and negative.

Suggested Citation

  • Sascha Keil, 2021. "The Challenging Estimation Of Trade Elasticities:Tackling The Inconclusive Eurozone Evidence," Chemnitz Economic Papers 042, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised May 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tu-chemnitz.de/wirtschaft/vwl1/RePEc/download/tch/wpaper/CEP042_KEIL.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. João P. Romero & John S. L. McCombie, 2018. "Thirlwall's law and the specification of export and import functions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 366-395, May.
    2. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    3. Sebastian Kripfganz & Daniel C. Schneider, 2023. "ardl: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 23(4), pages 983-1019, December.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Sebastian Kripfganz & Daniel C. Schneider, 2023. "ardl: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 23(4), pages 983-1019, December.
    6. John S.L. McCombie, 1997. "On the Empirics of Balance-Of-Payments–Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 345-375, March.
    7. Fabrício J. Missio & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Gustavo Britto & José Luis Oreiro, 2015. "Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 686-714, November.
    8. Luciano Boggio & Laura Barbieri, 2017. "International competitiveness in post-Keynesian growth theory: controversies and empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 41(1), pages 25-47.
    9. Jesus Gonzalo & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2000. "On the robustness of cointegration tests when series are fractionally intergrated," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(7), pages 821-827.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. A. P. Thirlwall, 2015. "A Model of Regional Growth Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Palgrave Studies in the History of Economic Thought, in: Essays on Keynesian and Kaldorian Economics, chapter 12, pages 286-301, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1970. "The Case for Regional Policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 337-348, November.
    13. Claire Giordano & Francesco Zollino, 2016. "Shedding Light on Price- and Non-price-competitiveness Determinants of Foreign Trade in the Four Largest Euro-area Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 604-634, August.
    14. Ghouse, Ghulam & Khan, Saud Ahmed & Rehman, Atiq Ur, 2018. "ARDL model as a remedy for spurious regression: problems, performance and prospectus," MPRA Paper 83973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sawyer, W. Charles & Sprinkle, Richard L., 1997. "The Demand for Imports and Exports in Japan: A Survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-259, June.
    16. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "The debate over ‘Thirlwall's law’: balance-of-payments-constrained growth reconsidered," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 13(3), pages 275-290, December.
    17. Sebastian Breuer & Jens Klose, 2015. "Who Gains From Nominal Devaluation? An Empirical Assessment of Euro-area Exports and Imports," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(12), pages 1966-1989, December.
    18. Mr. Karl F Habermeier & Mr. Mario M Mesquita, 1999. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Panel Data Study," IMF Working Papers 1999/050, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    20. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2018. "Italy’s Price Competitiveness: An Empirical Assessment Through Export Elasticities," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(3), pages 421-462, November.
    21. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
    22. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    23. Bayoumi, Tamim, 1998. "Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 1970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
    25. Servaas Storm & C.W.M. Naastepad, 2015. "Crisis and Recovery in the German Economy: The Real Lessons," Working Papers Series 10, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    26. Gustav A. Horn & Andrew Watt, 2017. "Wages and Nominal and Real Unit Labour Cost Differentials in EMU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 059, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    27. Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "Structural changes, cointegration and the empirics of Thirlwall's law," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(10), pages 1315-1329.
    28. Morgan, A D, 1970. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade: A Comment," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 38(4), pages 303-314, December.
    29. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    30. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    31. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
    32. Storm, Servaas & Naastepad, C.W.M., 2015. "Crisis and recovery in the German economy: The real lessons," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 11-24.
    33. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sascha Keil, 2023. "The challenging estimation of trade elasticities: Tackling the inconclusive Eurozone evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1235-1263, May.
    2. Sascha Keil & Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2024. "Kaldorian cumulative causation in the Euro area: an empirical assessment of divergent export competitiveness," FMM Working Paper 103-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Guilherme R. Magacho & John S. L. McCombie, 2020. "Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 633-660, July.
    4. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    6. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    7. Heinze, Henriette, 2018. "The determinants of German exports: An analysis of intra- and extra-EMU trade," IPE Working Papers 95/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    8. Musa Esuwa Shingil & Huseyin Ozdeser & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2022. "Investigation of Balance of Payment Constrained Growth Model: The Impact of Export Growth, Capital Flows, and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Growth of the UK," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    9. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2021. "The price vs. non-price competitiveness conundrum: a post-Keynesian comparative political economy analysis," Working Papers PKWP2109, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    10. Boucekkine, R. & Laksaci, M. & Touati-Tliba, M., 2021. "Long-run stability of money demand and monetary policy: The case of Algeria," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    11. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    12. Sebastian Kripfganz & Daniel C. Schneider, 2020. "Response Surface Regressions for Critical Value Bounds and Approximate p‐values in Equilibrium Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1456-1481, December.
    13. Senay, Acikgöz & Mert, Merter, 2015. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An alternative approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. João Prates Romero, 2018. "A Kaldor-Schumpeter Model Of Cumulative Growth: Combining Increasing Returns And Non-Price Competitiveness With Technological Catch-Up And Research Intensity," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Porcile, Gabriel & Sartorello Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano, 2020. "Patterns of growth in structuralist models: The role of the real exchange rate and industrial policy," MERIT Working Papers 2020-027, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    16. Hanson, Daniel & Toru Delibasi, Tuba & Gatti, Matteo & Cohen, Shamai, 2022. "How do changes in economic activity affect air passenger traffic? The use of state-dependent income elasticities to improve aviation forecasts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    17. Lukman Ayinde Olorogun, 2022. "Revisiting the Nexus of FDI-Led Growth Hypothesis and Economic Development in Rwanda: a Johansen-ARDL Approach to Cointegration," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(4), pages 2695-2717, December.
    18. Mohammad Jaforullah & Alan King, 2015. "is New Zealand's economy vulnerable to world oil market shocks?," Working Papers 1503, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2015.
    19. Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 1999. "A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 944, Society for Computational Economics, revised 18 Sep 2000.
    20. Porcile, Gabriel & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano, 2021. "Patterns of Growth in Structuralist Models: The Role of PoliticalEconomy," CAFE Working Papers 12, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Competitiveness; Kaldor Paradox; Export equation; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep042. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Kulitza (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwtucde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.