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Catastrophe theory to assess water security and adaptation strategy in the context of environmental change

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  • Wang Xiao-jun
  • Zhang Jian-yun
  • Shamsuddin Shahid
  • Xia Xing-hui
  • He Rui-min
  • Shang Man-ting

Abstract

Economic development, population growth, urbanization and climate change have led to an increasing water shortage across the globe. Ensuring water security under changing environment will be the greatest challenge for water resources managers in near future. In this paper, catastrophe theory based multi-criteria evaluation model has been proposed to assess water security under different management strategies to recommend the best water management strategy to achieve water security in the context of global environmental change. The assessment model involves future scenarios of climate change, population growth and economic development. Total 16 indicators related to climate, socio-economy and water availability and consumption have been proposed to measure water security under three management strategies viz. business-as-usual, water demand management and water supply management. The model has been applied to Yulin city of North West China to assess water security as well as to identify the water management strategy under changing environment. The results show that under business-as-usual situation the water shortage rate will reach up to 44 % by the year 2020 and up to 70 % by the year 2030 in Yulin. Water supply is required to increase by 41 % to meet the water demand under supply management strategy which is beyond the safe baseline rate. The study reveals that water demand management can reduce the gap between water supply and demand to a reasonable amount and therefore, can be considered as the most effective approach for adapting with environment change. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Wang Xiao-jun & Zhang Jian-yun & Shamsuddin Shahid & Xia Xing-hui & He Rui-min & Shang Man-ting, 2014. "Catastrophe theory to assess water security and adaptation strategy in the context of environmental change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 463-477, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:19:y:2014:i:4:p:463-477
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9443-x
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    2. Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung & Kamal Ahmed & Young Hoon Song, 2018. "Development of Climate-Based Index for Hydrologic Hazard Susceptibility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Cavalcante, Ana Helena A. P., 2015. "Barriers and opportunities for climate adaptation: The water crisis in Greater São Paulo," The Constitutional Economics Network Working Papers 04-2015, University of Freiburg, Department of Economic Policy and Constitutional Economic Theory.
    4. Carla Ximena Salinas & Jorge Gironás & Miriam Pinto, 2016. "Water security as a challenge for the sustainability of La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation in northern Chile: global perspectives and adaptation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(8), pages 1235-1246, December.
    5. Sumaiya Jarin Ahammed & Eun-Sung Chung & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2018. "Parametric Assessment of Pre-Monsoon Agricultural Water Scarcity in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Muhammad Sajjad & Zulfiqar Ali & Mirza Waleed, 2023. "Has Pakistan learned from disasters over the decades? Dynamic resilience insights based on catastrophe progression and geo-information models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 3021-3042, July.
    7. Mahiuddin Alamgir & Morteza Mohsenipour & Rajab Homsi & Xiaojun Wang & Shamsuddin Shahid & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Nor Eliza Alias & Ali Yuzir, 2019. "Parametric Assessment of Seasonal Drought Risk to Crop Production in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, March.
    8. Sina Sadeghfam & Yousef Hassanzadeh & Ata Allah Nadiri & Mahdi Zarghami, 2016. "Localization of Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Using Catastrophe Theory," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4585-4601, October.

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