IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Innovation diffusion with heterogeneous networked agents: a computational model

It is well established that S-shaped curves describe the diffusion processes of many innovations quite well, but little insight on the mechanics of diffusion is achieved by simple curve fitting. We propose an evolutionary model of the diffusion process, focusing on the characteristics of economic agents and on the interactions among them, and relate those determinants with the observed shape of the diffusion curve. Using simulation techniques, we show that the proposed model is able to explain why an innovation may not diffuse globally across an economy/region, even when it faces no rival innovations. Moreover, we show how network size, informational spillovers, and the behavior of innovation prices shape the diffusion process. The results regarding network size and informational spillovers rationalize the importance of informational lock-outs, proving they can influence both the aggregate adoption rate and the speed of the diffusion process. With respect to innovation prices, simulation results show that faster price decline leads to higher aggregate adoption rates, and that the diffusion process is more sensitive to the pricing dynamics than to the network size or the behavior of spillovers. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11403-011-0086-x
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination.

Volume (Year): 7 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 125-144

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:7:y:2012:i:2:p:125-144
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/economic+theory/journal/11403

Order Information: Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Stoneman, P & Ireland, N J, 1983. "The Role of Supply Factors in the Diffusion of New Process Technology," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(369a), pages 66-78, Supplemen.
  2. Peter N. Golder & Gerard J. Tellis, 2004. "Growing, Growing, Gone: Cascades, Diffusion, and Turning Points in the Product Life Cycle," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 207-218, December.
  3. Reinganum, Jennifer F, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405, July.
  4. Parker, Philip M., 1994. "Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 353-380, September.
  5. Lim, Byeong-Lak & Choi, Munkee & Park, Myeong-Cheol, 2003. "The late take-off phenomenon in the diffusion of telecommunication services: network effect and the critical mass," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 537-557, December.
  6. Utterback, James M & Abernathy, William J, 1975. "A dynamic model of process and product innovation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 3(6), pages 639-656, December.
  7. Silverberg, Gerald & Dosi, Giovanni & Orsenigo, Luigi, 1988. "Innovation, Diversity and Diffusion: A Self-organisation Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1032-54, December.
  8. Balcer, Yves & Lippman, Steven A., 1984. "Technological expectations and adoption of improved technology," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 292-318, December.
  9. Deroian, Frederic, 2002. "Formation of social networks and diffusion of innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 835-846, July.
  10. Christoph H. Loch & Bernardo A. Huberman, 1999. "A Punctuated-Equilibrium Model of Technology Diffusion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 160-177, February.
  11. Ireland, N & Stoneman, P, 1986. "Technological Diffusion, Expectations and Welfare," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 283-304, July.
  12. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
  13. Geroski, Paul A, 1999. "Models of Technology Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 2146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Simona Cantono & Gerald Silverberg, 2008. "A percolation model of eco-innovation diffusion: the relationship between diffusion, learning economies and subsidies," MERIT Working Papers 025, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  15. Cainarca, Gian Carlo & Colombo, Massimo G. & Mariotti, Sergio, 1989. "An evolutionary pattern of innovation diffusion. The case of flexible automation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 59-86, April.
  16. Sarkar, Jayati, 1998. " Technological Diffusion: Alternative Theories and Historical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 131-76, April.
  17. Gold, Bela, 1981. "Technological Diffusion in Industry: Research Needs and Shortcomings," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 247-69, March.
  18. Davies, Stephen W., 1979. "Inter-firm diffusion of process innovations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 299-317, October.
  19. Spiwoks, Markus & Bizer, Kilian & Hein, Oliver, 2008. "Informational cascades: A mirage?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 193-199, July.
  20. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:7:y:2012:i:2:p:125-144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)

or (Christopher F Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.