Innovation diffusion with heterogeneous networked agents: a computational model
It is well established that S-shaped curves describe the diffusion processes of many innovations quite well, but little insight on the mechanics of diffusion is achieved by simple curve fitting. We propose an evolutionary model of the diffusion process, focusing on the characteristics of economic agents and on the interactions among them, and relate those determinants with the observed shape of the diffusion curve. Using simulation techniques, we show that the proposed model is able to explain why an innovation may not diffuse globally across an economy/region, even when it faces no rival innovations. Moreover, we show how network size, informational spillovers, and the behavior of innovation prices shape the diffusion process. The results regarding network size and informational spillovers rationalize the importance of informational lock-outs, proving they can influence both the aggregate adoption rate and the speed of the diffusion process. With respect to innovation prices, simulation results show that faster price decline leads to higher aggregate adoption rates, and that the diffusion process is more sensitive to the pricing dynamics than to the network size or the behavior of spillovers. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012
Volume (Year): 7 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/economic+theory/journal/11403|
|Order Information:||Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stoneman, P & Ireland, N J, 1983. "The Role of Supply Factors in the Diffusion of New Process Technology," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(369a), pages 66-78, Supplemen.
- Peter N. Golder & Gerard J. Tellis, 2004. "Growing, Growing, Gone: Cascades, Diffusion, and Turning Points in the Product Life Cycle," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 207-218, December.
- Reinganum, Jennifer F, 1981.
"On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405, July.
- Reinganum, Jennifer F., . "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Working Papers 312, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Parker, Philip M., 1994. "Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 353-380, September.
- Lim, Byeong-Lak & Choi, Munkee & Park, Myeong-Cheol, 2003. "The late take-off phenomenon in the diffusion of telecommunication services: network effect and the critical mass," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 537-557, December.
- Utterback, James M & Abernathy, William J, 1975. "A dynamic model of process and product innovation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 3(6), pages 639-656, December.
- Silverberg, Gerald & Dosi, Giovanni & Orsenigo, Luigi, 1988. "Innovation, Diversity and Diffusion: A Self-organisation Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1032-54, December.
- Balcer, Yves & Lippman, Steven A., 1984. "Technological expectations and adoption of improved technology," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 292-318, December.
- Deroian, Frederic, 2002. "Formation of social networks and diffusion of innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 835-846, July.
- Christoph H. Loch & Bernardo A. Huberman, 1999. "A Punctuated-Equilibrium Model of Technology Diffusion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 160-177, February.
- Ireland, N & Stoneman, P, 1986. "Technological Diffusion, Expectations and Welfare," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 283-304, July.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010.
"A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1193, David K. Levine.
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- Geroski, Paul A, 1999.
"Models of Technology Diffusion,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Simona Cantono & Gerald Silverberg, 2008. "A percolation model of eco-innovation diffusion: the relationship between diffusion, learning economies and subsidies," MERIT Working Papers 025, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- Cainarca, Gian Carlo & Colombo, Massimo G. & Mariotti, Sergio, 1989. "An evolutionary pattern of innovation diffusion. The case of flexible automation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 59-86, April.
- Sarkar, Jayati, 1998. " Technological Diffusion: Alternative Theories and Historical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 131-76, April.
- Gold, Bela, 1981. "Technological Diffusion in Industry: Research Needs and Shortcomings," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 247-69, March.
- Davies, Stephen W., 1979. "Inter-firm diffusion of process innovations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 299-317, October.
- Spiwoks, Markus & Bizer, Kilian & Hein, Oliver, 2008. "Informational cascades: A mirage?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 193-199, July.
- Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:7:y:2012:i:2:p:125-144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.