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Innovation, Diversity and Diffusion: A Self-organisation Model

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  • Silverberg, Gerald
  • Dosi, Giovanni
  • Orsenigo, Luigi

Abstract

A number of features of innovation diffusion are identified: appropriability, diversity, expectations, selection, learning, and spillover externalities. A dynamic model is formul ated to embed the diffusion question into a more general framework of disequilibrium competition. The model incorporates distinct vintage structures reflecting a change in technological trajectory, learning-by-using, a nd expectations-driven investment rules of thumb. Simulation studies reveal robust quasi-logistic curves, but a complicated pattern of net market share gains and losses. Uncertainty regarding the rationality of early or late adoption, it is argued, ensures that the requisite behavioral variety is present to generate these diffusion patterns. Copyright 1988 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Silverberg, Gerald & Dosi, Giovanni & Orsenigo, Luigi, 1988. "Innovation, Diversity and Diffusion: A Self-organisation Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1032-1054, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:98:y:1988:i:393:p:1032-54
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    1. Barnum, Howard N. & Squire, Lyn, 1979. "An econometric application of the theory of the farm-household," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 79-102, February.
    2. Caldwell, John C & Reddy, P H & Caldwell, Pat, 1986. "Periodic High Risk as a Cause of Fertility Decline in a Changing Rural Environment: Survival Strategies in the 1980-1983 South Indian Drought," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(4), pages 677-701, July.
    3. Eswaran, Mukesh & Kotwal, Ashok, 1985. "A Theory of Contractual Structure in Agriculture," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 352-367, June.
    4. Lucas, Robert E B & Stark, Oded, 1985. "Motivations to Remit: Evidence from Botswana," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 901-918, October.
    5. Pollak, Robert A, 1985. "A Transaction Cost Approach to Families and Households," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 581-608, June.
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