IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ijphth/v62y2017i8d10.1007_s00038-017-0980-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013

Author

Listed:
  • Li-Ming Ho

    (National Kaohsiung Marine University)

  • Christian Schafferer

    (Overseas Chinese University)

  • Jie-Min Lee

    (National Kaohsiung Marine University)

  • Chun-Yuan Yeh

    (Overseas Chinese University)

  • Chi-Jung Hsieh

    (National Changhua University of Education)

Abstract

Objectives This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries. Methods Using panel data from the 1999–2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations. Results Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia. Conclusions Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Li-Ming Ho & Christian Schafferer & Jie-Min Lee & Chun-Yuan Yeh & Chi-Jung Hsieh, 2017. "The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 62(8), pages 899-909, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijphth:v:62:y:2017:i:8:d:10.1007_s00038-017-0980-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00038-017-0980-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00038-017-0980-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00038-017-0980-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson Jon P., 2003. "Cigarette Demand, Structural Change, and Advertising Bans: International Evidence, 1970-1995," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, August.
    2. Willem H. Boshoff, 2008. "Cigarette Demand In South Africa Over 1996‐2006: The Role Of Price, Income And Health Awareness," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(1), pages 118-131, March.
    3. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    4. C.P. Van Walbeek*, 1996. "Excise Taxes on Tobacco: How Much Scope does the Government Have?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 64(1), pages 12-23, March.
    5. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Maxim Pinkovskiy, 2010. "African Poverty is Falling...Much Faster than You Think!," NBER Working Papers 15775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Blecher, Evan, 2008. "The impact of tobacco advertising bans on consumption in developing countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 930-942, July.
    7. Craig A. Gallet & John A. List, 2003. "Cigarette demand: a meta‐analysis of elasticities," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(10), pages 821-835, October.
    8. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    9. Taylor Jr., D.H. & Hasselblad, V. & Henley, S.J. & Thun, M.J. & Sloan, F.A., 2002. "Benefits of smoking cessation for longevity," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 92(6), pages 990-996.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emilio Depetris-Chauvin & Ömer Özak, 2020. "The origins of the division of labor in pre-industrial times," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 297-340, September.
    2. James Bishop & Iris Chan, 2019. "Is Declining Union Membership Contributing to Low Wages Growth?," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2019-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Blecher, Evan, 2015. "Taxes on tobacco, alcohol and sugar sweetened beverages: Linkages and lessons learned," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 136, pages 175-179.
    4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2014. "Disease and Development Revisited," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(6), pages 1355-1366.
    5. Hemant K. Bhargava & Abhay Nath Mishra, 2014. "Electronic Medical Records and Physician Productivity: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(10), pages 2543-2562, October.
    6. Jean-François Maystadt & Valerie Mueller & Ashwini Sebastian, 2016. "Environmental Migration and Labor Markets in Nepal," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(2), pages 417-452.
    7. Laptieva, Nataliia, 2016. "Information sharing and the volume of private credit in transition: Evidence from Ukrainian bank-level panel dataAuthor-Name: Grajzl, Peter," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 434-449.
    8. Goel, Rajeev K., 2014. "Economic stress and cigarette smoking: Evidence from the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 284-289.
    9. Dietz, Daniel & Zwick, Thomas, 2016. "The retention effect of training: Portability, visibility, and credibility," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-011, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Stimpfle, Alexander & Stadelmann, David, 2015. "The Impact of Fundamental Development Factors on Different Income Groups: International Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113128, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Alfred Kechia Mukong, 2017. "Peer Networks and Tobacco Consumption in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 341-367, September.
    12. Andrea Bassanini & Thomas Manfredi, 2014. "Capital’s grabbing hand? A cross-industry analysis of the decline of the labor share in OECD countries," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(1), pages 3-30, June.
    13. Bertoldi, Paolo & Mosconi, Rocco, 2020. "Do energy efficiency policies save energy? A new approach based on energy policy indicators (in the EU Member States)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Harald Oberhofer & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Peter Huber & Serguei Kaniovski & Klaus Nowotny & Michael Pfaffermayr & Monique Ebell & Nikolaos Kontogiannis, 2016. "Single Market Transmission Mechanisms Before, During and After the 2008-09 Crisis. A Quantitative Assessment," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59156.
    15. Gao, Yanyan & Zang, Leizhen & Sun, Jun, 2018. "Does computer penetration increase farmers’ income? An empirical study from China," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 345-360.
    16. Naresh Bansal & Kissan Bansal & Minghui Ma & M. Babajide Wintoki, 2017. "Do CMO Incentives Matter? An Empirical Investigation of CMO Compensation and Its Impact on Firm Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1993-2015, June.
    17. Armin Falk & Fabian Kosse & Ingo Menrath & Pablo E. Verde & Johannes Siegrist, 2018. "Unfair Pay and Health," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1477-1488, April.
    18. Frank Nagle, 2019. "Open Source Software and Firm Productivity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1191-1215, March.
    19. Beck, Thorsten & Chen, Tao & Lin, Chen & Song, Frank M., 2016. "Financial innovation: The bright and the dark sides," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 28-51.
    20. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Michael F. Pesko & Steven C. Hill, 2017. "The Effect of Insurance Expansions on Smoking Cessation Medication Prescriptions: Evidence from ACA Medicaid Expansions," NBER Working Papers 23450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ijphth:v:62:y:2017:i:8:d:10.1007_s00038-017-0980-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.