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Cigarette Demand, Structural Change, and Advertising Bans: International Evidence, 1970-1995

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  • Nelson Jon P.

    (Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

Using panel data for a cross-section of countries, several previous studies estimate the effect of advertising bans on cigarette consumption. These studies suffer from three problems: (1) structural change in cigarette demand functions; (2) endogeneity of advertising bans; and (3) non-stationarity of cigarette consumption data. Using annual data for 20 OECD countries, this study tests for unit roots. Growth rates of cigarette consumption (log differences) are stationary, but levels data are not. I estimate single-equation panel models for 1970-1995 and test formally for structural change. The tests and recursive coefficient estimates confirm a regime change beginning in 1985. Results for different time periods are reported for the effects of price, income, health warnings, country fixed-effects, and moderate and strong advertising bans. The study also considers the possibility of endogenous advertising bans. A public-choice model is estimated as a two-equation model of advertising legislation and cigarette demand. The adoption of advertising bans is modeled as a Poisson count regression, and fitted values for the number of banned media are used as instruments in the demand equation. The results in the paper fail to demonstrate that advertising bans reduce aggregate cigarette consumption. Empirical results in previous studies are not robust to use of stationary data; refinements in model specification; different time periods; and endogeneity of advertising bans. Due to a decline in smoking prevalence, especially among males, there was a change in the political climate in favor of stronger restrictions on cigarette advertising. Overall, advertising bans have had no effect on cigarette consumption, regardless of the time period considered or the severity of the bans.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson Jon P., 2003. "Cigarette Demand, Structural Change, and Advertising Bans: International Evidence, 1970-1995," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:contributions.2:y:2003:i:1:n:10
    DOI: 10.2202/1538-0645.1111
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    1. Janice Ballou & Matthew Mishkind & Geraldine Mooney & Welmoet van Kammen, "undated". "National Science Foundation Report on Efficiency of Grant Size and Duration: Principal Investigator FY 2001 Grant Award Survey and Institutional Survey," Mathematica Policy Research Reports bdadbcef4daf4bf8b94a0fb7f, Mathematica Policy Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey E. Harris & Ana Inés Balsa & Patricia Triunfo, 2014. "Tobacco Control Campaign in Uruguay: Impact on Smoking Cessation during Pregnancy," NBER Working Papers 19878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Blecher, Evan, 2015. "Taxes on tobacco, alcohol and sugar sweetened beverages: Linkages and lessons learned," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 136, pages 175-179.
    3. Blecher, Evan, 2008. "The impact of tobacco advertising bans on consumption in developing countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 930-942, July.
    4. Saša Ranđelović & Milica Bisić, 2021. "Excise duties harmonisation and smoking in a model with cross-border arbitrage," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 507-532, May.
    5. Lesley Chiou & Catherine E. Tucker, 2022. "How Do Restrictions on Advertising Affect Consumer Search?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 866-882, February.
    6. Jon P. Nelson, 2010. "What is Learned from Longitudinal Studies of Advertising and Youth Drinking and Smoking? A Critical Assessment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-57, March.
    7. Jeffrey E. Harris & Ana I. Balsa & Patricia Triunfo, 2014. "Campaña antitabaco en Uruguay: Impacto en la decisión de dejar de fumar durante el embarazo y en el peso al nacer," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 1401, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
    8. Sari, Nazmi, 2013. "On anti-smoking regulations and tobacco consumption," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 60-67.
    9. Li-Ming Ho & Christian Schafferer & Jie-Min Lee & Chun-Yuan Yeh & Chi-Jung Hsieh, 2017. "The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 62(8), pages 899-909, November.
    10. Xiaohua Yu & David Abler, 2010. "Interactions between cigarette and alcohol consumption in rural China," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 11(2), pages 151-160, April.

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