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Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

Author

Listed:
  • Michelle C. Hamilton

    (University of Virginia)

  • Shital A. Thekdi

    (University of Richmond)

  • Elisabeth M. Jenicek

    (U.S. Army Engineer Research Development Center)

  • Russell S. Harmon

    (U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center)

  • Michael E. Goodsite

    (Aarhus University Herning and Nordic Center of Excellence for Strategic Adaptation Research)

  • Michael P. Case

    (U.S. Army Engineer Research Development Center)

  • Christopher W. Karvetski

    (George Mason University)

  • James H. Lambert

    (University of Virginia)

Abstract

Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play a major role in addressing the challenges of sustainability management, especially the core question of how to scan the future in a structured, integrated, participatory, and policy-relevant manner. In a context of systems engineering, scenario analysis can provide an integrated and timely understanding of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach to scenario analysis provides insight into both high-performing and robust initiatives/policies, and, perhaps more importantly, influential scenarios. Identifying the scenarios that are most influential to policy making helps to direct further investigative analysis, modeling, and data-collection efforts to support the learning process that is emphasized in adaptive management.

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle C. Hamilton & Shital A. Thekdi & Elisabeth M. Jenicek & Russell S. Harmon & Michael E. Goodsite & Michael P. Case & Christopher W. Karvetski & James H. Lambert, 2013. "Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 89-103, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:33:y:2013:i:1:d:10.1007_s10669-012-9424-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-012-9424-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shital A. Thekdi & James H. Lambert, 2012. "Decision Analysis and Risk Models for Land Development Affecting Infrastructure Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(7), pages 1253-1269, July.
    2. Qian Zhou & James H. Lambert & Christopher W. Karvetski & Jeffrey M. Keisler & Igor Linkov, 2012. "Flood Protection Diversification to Reduce Probabilities of Extreme Losses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1873-1887, November.
    3. Costantini, Valeria & Gracceva, Francesco & Markandya, Anil & Vicini, Giorgio, 2007. "Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 210-226, January.
    4. Tonn, Bruce & Healy, K.C. & Gibson, Amy & Ashish, Ashutosh & Cody, Preston & Beres, Drew & Lulla, Sam & Mazur, Jim & Ritter, A.J., 2009. "Power from Perspective: Potential future United States energy portfolios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1432-1443, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Haowen You & Elizabeth B. Connelly & James H. Lambert & Andres F. Clarens, 2014. "Climate and other scenarios disrupt priorities in several management perspectives," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 540-554, December.
    2. Jizhe Zhou & Quanhua Hou, 2021. "Complex Network-Based Research on the Resilience of Rural Settlements in Sanshui Watershed," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-26, October.
    3. Chad Staddon & Sarah Ward & Laura Vito & Adriana Zuniga-Teran & Andrea K. Gerlak & Yolandi Schoeman & Aimee Hart & Giles Booth, 2018. "Contributions of green infrastructure to enhancing urban resilience," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 330-338, September.
    4. Thekdi, Shital A. & Lambert, James H., 2015. "Integrated risk management of safety and development on transportation corridors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Hassler, Madison L. & Andrews, Daniel J. & Ezell, Barry C. & Polmateer, Thomas L. & Lambert, James H., 2020. "Multi-perspective scenario-based preferences in enterprise risk analysis of public safety wireless broadband network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Abhijit Paul & Paul F. Downton & Enoch Okoli & Jit K. Gupta & Mark Tirpak, 2014. "Does adding more lettuce make a hamburger truly green? A metaphor behind the green movement paradigm in designing cities," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 373-377, September.
    7. Nathan James Bennett & Alin Kadfak & Philip Dearden, 2016. "Community-based scenario planning: a process for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning to social–ecological change in coastal communities," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 1771-1799, December.
    8. Shital A. Thekdi & Joost R. Santos, 2016. "Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario‐Based Input‐Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(5), pages 1025-1039, May.
    9. Hamilton, Michelle C. & Lambert, James H. & Connelly, Elizabeth B. & Barker, Kash, 2016. "Resilience analytics with disruption of preferences and lifecycle cost analysis for energy microgrids," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 11-21.

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