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Measuring temperature-related mortality using endogenously determined thresholds

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  • Thomas Longden

    (University of Technology Sydney)

Abstract

Heat-related mortality tends to be associated with heatwaves that do not allow for sufficient acclimatisation to hot temperatures. In contrast, damage functions and most heatwave emergency response plans do not account for acclimatisation. Using an excess heat measure that accounts for acclimatisation, this paper produces estimates of temperature-related mortality for the five largest Australian capital cities. Fixed effects panel threshold regressions are applied to establish the thresholds that coincide with heightened mortality during extreme temperature events. The estimated parameters associated with these thresholds are then used to develop hindcast estimates for cold temperatures, moderate temperatures, hot temperatures and extreme heat. The estimated thresholds coincide with a notable impact of hot temperatures on mortality, but a limited cold temperature impact. This shows that the burden of risk associated with mortality related to future temperatures and climate change within Australia coincides with heatwaves rather than coldwaves. This is in contrast to recent studies that found that cold temperature-related mortality within Australian capital cities has and will continue to be notable. These studies also found a net benefit from climate change in Australia due to reduced cold temperature deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Longden, 2018. "Measuring temperature-related mortality using endogenously determined thresholds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 343-375, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:150:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2269-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2269-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Raimi, Daniel, 2021. "Effects of Climate Change on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality: A Literature Review to Inform Updated Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon," RFF Working Paper Series 21-12, Resources for the Future.
    2. Thomas Longden, 2019. "The impact of temperature on mortality across different climate zones," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 221-242, November.
    3. Pierre Masselot & Fateh Chebana & Céline Campagna & Éric Lavigne & Taha B.M.J. Ouarda & Pierre Gosselin, 2021. "Machine learning approaches to identify thresholds in a heat‐health warning system context," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(4), pages 1326-1346, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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