Effects of Climate Change on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality: A Literature Review to Inform Updated Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon

As the climate changes, the frequency and intensity of hot and cold days will shift across the globe, with considerable implications for human health. In this review, I survey the available literature on the projected effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality, with the goal of identifying studies that can be most useful in updating the social cost of carbon (SCC). I identify and discuss in detail several studies that are strong candidates for use in updating the SCC. However, major challenges continue to exist in the literature, including estimating damages for parts of the world where data are limited or nonexistent and quantifying the effects of future adaptation. In general terms, most studies estimate that climate change scenarios with high levels of warming will, on average, result in increased global mortality, with the most acute effects in warmer and low-income regions. At the same time, numerous studies estimate that under lower levels of warming, higher income regions in cooler climatic zones will experience modest reductions in mortality. However, all studies report large uncertainty ranges for future effects.