IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region

Listed author(s):
  • Mario Cunha

    ()

    (Universidade do Porto and Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais)

  • Christian Richter

    ()

    (German University in Cairo)

Abstract In this paper, we analyse the impact of spring temperature (ST) and soil water (SW) on wine production volume (WPV) for the period 1933 to 2013 in the Douro region. We employ a state-space regression model to capture possible structural changes in wine production caused by a change in ST and/or SW. We find that the ST explains about 65 % of the variability of WPV. In contrast, the summer SW level increases the R adj-square to 83 % and the Akaike criterion value was lower. We also find interesting dynamic properties of SW and ST. The immediate impact of an increase in SW is negative for WPV, while the SW that is in the ground, i.e. from the previous 2 and 3 years, have a positive effect on actual WPV. Moreover, the individual changes of ST and SW have similar dynamic impact on WPV. Our main finding is that climate change does not only change the variables in question but also the winegrape vineyards adding to the negative impact on WPV levels. As a result we observe a shift of the relative importance away from ST to SW.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1719-9
File Function: Abstract
Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.

Volume (Year): 138 (2016)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 239-251

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1719-9
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1719-9
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Chi-Chung Chen & Ching-Cheng Chang, 2005. "The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 503-511, November.
  2. M. Moriondo & G. Jones & B. Bois & C. Dibari & R. Ferrise & G. Trombi & M. Bindi, 2013. "Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 825-839, August.
  3. E. Briche & G. Beltrando & S. Somot & H. Quenol, 2014. "Critical analysis of simulated daily temperature data from the ARPEGE-climate model: application to climate change in the Champagne wine-producing region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 241-254, March.
  4. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Economics in the Backyard: How Much Convergence is there between China and her Special Regions?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 819-861, June.
  5. J. Santos & S. Grätsch & M. Karremann & G. Jones & J. Pinto, 2013. "Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 211-225, March.
  6. Quiroga, Sonia & Iglesias, Ana, 2009. "A comparison of the climate risks of cereal, citrus, grapevine and olive production in Spain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(1-2), pages 91-100, June.
  7. S. Urhausen & S. Brienen & A. Kapala & C. Simmer, 2011. "Climatic conditions and their impact on viticulture in the Upper Moselle region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 349-373, December.
  8. Olivier Deschenes & Charles Kolstad, 2011. "Economic impacts of climate change on California agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 365-386, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1719-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Rebekah McClure)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.