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The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region

Listed author(s):
  • Mario Cunha


    (Universidade do Porto and Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais)

  • Christian Richter


    (German University in Cairo)

Abstract In this paper, we analyse the impact of spring temperature (ST) and soil water (SW) on wine production volume (WPV) for the period 1933 to 2013 in the Douro region. We employ a state-space regression model to capture possible structural changes in wine production caused by a change in ST and/or SW. We find that the ST explains about 65 % of the variability of WPV. In contrast, the summer SW level increases the R adj-square to 83 % and the Akaike criterion value was lower. We also find interesting dynamic properties of SW and ST. The immediate impact of an increase in SW is negative for WPV, while the SW that is in the ground, i.e. from the previous 2 and 3 years, have a positive effect on actual WPV. Moreover, the individual changes of ST and SW have similar dynamic impact on WPV. Our main finding is that climate change does not only change the variables in question but also the winegrape vineyards adding to the negative impact on WPV levels. As a result we observe a shift of the relative importance away from ST to SW.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.

Volume (Year): 138 (2016)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 239-251

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Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1719-9
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1719-9
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  1. Chi-Chung Chen & Ching-Cheng Chang, 2005. "The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 503-511, November.
  2. M. Moriondo & G. Jones & B. Bois & C. Dibari & R. Ferrise & G. Trombi & M. Bindi, 2013. "Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 825-839, August.
  3. E. Briche & G. Beltrando & S. Somot & H. Quenol, 2014. "Critical analysis of simulated daily temperature data from the ARPEGE-climate model: application to climate change in the Champagne wine-producing region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 241-254, March.
  4. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Economics in the Backyard: How Much Convergence is there between China and her Special Regions?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 819-861, June.
  5. J. Santos & S. Grätsch & M. Karremann & G. Jones & J. Pinto, 2013. "Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 211-225, March.
  6. Quiroga, Sonia & Iglesias, Ana, 2009. "A comparison of the climate risks of cereal, citrus, grapevine and olive production in Spain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(1-2), pages 91-100, June.
  7. S. Urhausen & S. Brienen & A. Kapala & C. Simmer, 2011. "Climatic conditions and their impact on viticulture in the Upper Moselle region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 349-373, December.
  8. Olivier Deschenes & Charles Kolstad, 2011. "Economic impacts of climate change on California agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 365-386, December.
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