IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v176y2023i10d10.1007_s10584-023-03613-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change information tailored to the agricultural sector in Central Europe, exemplified on the region of Lower Franconia

Author

Listed:
  • Heiko Paeth

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Daniel Schönbein

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Luzia Keupp

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Daniel Abel

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Freddy Bangelesa

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Miriam Baumann

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Christian Büdel

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Christian Hartmann

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Christof Kneisel

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Konstantin Kobs

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Julian Krause

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Martin Krech

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Felix Pollinger

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Christian Schäfer

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Michael Steininger

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Birgit Terhorst

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Tobias Ullmann

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Martina Wilde

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Katrin Ziegler

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Bernd Zimanowski

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Roland Baumhauer

    (University of Würzburg)

  • Andreas Hotho

    (University of Würzburg)

Abstract

There is a growing societal, economic, and political demand to translate available data on regional climate change into sector-specific, practice-oriented, and user-friendly information. The study presents a demand-driven approach to specify the impacts of regional climate change on agriculture, viticulture, and fruit and vegetable growing in Lower Franconia, southern Germany, a region with heterogeneous topography, diversified land use patterns, and intense activities in the sectors specified above. The approach is based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model projections, a bias correction tool, and a large spectrum of meteorological (extreme) indicators that are crucial to the agricultural sector in Central Europe, as inferred from a stakeholder survey. For several decades, Lower Franconia represents a hotspot region of climate change with enhanced heat waves, prolonged droughts, and intermittent local flooding by heavy rainfall events. Results of the high-resolution regional climate model projections indicate an increase of hot days and tropical nights by a factor of 5 and 12, respectively, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow until 2100 according to the RCP8.5 emission scenario. At the same time, droughts will occur more frequently and last longer while rainfall intensity enhances. A longer growing period starting more than 40 days earlier (compared to the reference period 1970 to 1999) implies a higher risk of late frost damage for crops, fruits, grapes, and even some tree species. In contrast, the thermal prerequisites for viticulture will be satisfied across the entire region, even at higher-elevation sites. These facets of regional climate change are made accessible to users and the public via an interactive field-resolving web portal. Altogether, they gravely challenge the historically developed land use systems in Lower Franconia and require timely adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Heiko Paeth & Daniel Schönbein & Luzia Keupp & Daniel Abel & Freddy Bangelesa & Miriam Baumann & Christian Büdel & Christian Hartmann & Christof Kneisel & Konstantin Kobs & Julian Krause & Martin Krec, 2023. "Climate change information tailored to the agricultural sector in Central Europe, exemplified on the region of Lower Franconia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-24, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03613-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03613-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-023-03613-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-023-03613-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gaetano Pellicone & Tommaso Caloiero & Ilaria Guagliardi, 2019. "The De Martonne aridity index in Calabria (Southern Italy)," Journal of Maps, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 788-796, July.
    2. S. Urhausen & S. Brienen & A. Kapala & C. Simmer, 2011. "Climatic conditions and their impact on viticulture in the Upper Moselle region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 349-373, December.
    3. M. Moriondo & G. Jones & B. Bois & C. Dibari & R. Ferrise & G. Trombi & M. Bindi, 2013. "Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 825-839, August.
    4. Miroslav Trnka & Josef Eitzinger & Daniela Semerádová & Petr Hlavinka & Jan Balek & Martin Dubrovský & Gerhard Kubu & Petr Štěpánek & Sabina Thaler & Martin Možný & Zdeněk Žalud, 2011. "Expected changes in agroclimatic conditions in Central Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 261-289, September.
    5. M. Ruiz-Ramos & A. Rodríguez & A. Dosio & C. Goodess & C. Harpham & M. Mínguez & E. Sánchez, 2016. "Comparing correction methods of RCM outputs for improving crop impact projections in the Iberian Peninsula for 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 283-297, January.
    6. Christian Troost & Thomas Berger, 2015. "Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation: Farm-Level Modeling of Adaptation to Climate Change in Southwest Germany," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(3), pages 833-854.
    7. Cox, P. G., 1996. "Some issues in the design of agricultural decision support systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 52(2-3), pages 355-381.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2016. "The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 239-251, September.
    2. Mössinger, Johannes & Troost, Christian & Berger, Thomas, 2022. "Bridging the gap between models and users: A lightweight mobile interface for optimized farming decisions in interactive modeling sessions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    3. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    4. McCown, R. L., 2002. "Changing systems for supporting farmers' decisions: problems, paradigms, and prospects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 179-220, October.
    5. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Ioannis Charalampopoulos & Fotoula Droulia & Jeffrey Evans, 2023. "The Bioclimatic Change of the Agricultural and Natural Areas of the Adriatic Coastal Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-26, March.
    7. Anna Sidiropoulou & Dimitrios Chouvardas & Konstantinos Mantzanas & Stefanos Stefanidis & Maria Karatassiou, 2022. "Impact of Transhumant Livestock Grazing Abandonment on Pseudo-Alpine Grasslands in Greece in the Context of Climatic Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, November.
    8. Coronese, Matteo & Occelli, Martina & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "AgriLOVE: Agriculture, land-use and technical change in an evolutionary, agent-based model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    9. Welch, S. M. & Jones, J. W. & Brennan, M. W. & Reeder, G. & Jacobson, B. M., 2002. "PCYield: model-based decision support for soybean production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 79-98, October.
    10. Carauta, Marcelo & Troost, Christian & Guzman-Bustamante, Ivan & Hampf, Anna & Libera, Affonso & Meurer, Katharina & Bönecke, Eric & Franko, Uwe & Ribeiro Rodrigues, Renato de Aragão & Berger, Thomas, 2021. "Climate-related land use policies in Brazil: How much has been achieved with economic incentives in agriculture?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Martin, G. & Duru, M. & Schellberg, J. & Ewert, F., 2012. "Simulations of plant productivity are affected by modelling approaches of farm management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 25-34.
    12. Holderieath, Jason, 2016. "Spatiotemporal management under heterogeneous damage and uncertain parameters. An agent-based approach," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235850, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Robert Huber & Hang Xiong & Kevin Keller & Robert Finger, 2022. "Bridging behavioural factors and standard bio‐economic modelling in an agent‐based modelling framework," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 35-63, February.
    14. Alessia Di Giuseppe & Alberto Maria Gambelli & Federico Rossi & Andrea Nicolini & Nicola Ceccarelli & Alberto Palliotti, 2020. "Insulating Organic Material as a Protection System against Late Frost Damages on the Vine Shoots," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-20, August.
    15. Srinivasan, M.S. & Measures, Richard & Muller, Carla & Neal, Mark & Rajanayaka, Channa & Shankar, Ude & Elley, Graham, 2021. "Comparing the water use metrics of just-in-case, just-in-time and justified irrigation strategies using a scenario-based tool," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    16. Sterk, B. & van Ittersum, M.K. & Leeuwis, C. & Rossing, W.A.H. & van Keulen, H. & van de Ven, G.W.J., 2006. "Finding niches for whole-farm design models - contradictio in terminis?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 211-228, February.
    17. Egger, Claudine & Plutzar, Christoph & Mayer, Andreas & Dullinger, Iwona & Dullinger, Stefan & Essl, Franz & Gattringer, Andreas & Bohner, Andreas & Haberl, Helmut & Gaube, Veronika, 2022. "Using the SECLAND model to project future land-use until 2050 under climate and socioeconomic change in the LTSER region Eisenwurzen (Austria)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    18. Bonfante, A. & Alfieri, S.M. & Albrizio, R. & Basile, A. & De Mascellis, R. & Gambuti, A. & Giorio, P. & Langella, G. & Manna, P. & Monaco, E. & Moio, L. & Terribile, F., 2017. "Evaluation of the effects of future climate change on grape quality through a physically based model application: a case study for the Aglianico grapevine in Campania region, Italy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 100-109.
    19. Troost, Christian & Huber, Robert & Bell, Andrew R. & van Delden, Hedwig & Filatova, Tatiana & Le, Quang Bao & Lippe, Melvin & Niamir, Leila & Polhill, J. Gareth & Sun, Zhanli & Berger, Thomas, 2023. "How to keep it adequate: A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 159, pages 1-21.
    20. Lamonaca, Emilia & Seccia, Antonio & Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2023. "Climate cha(lle)nges in global wine production and trade patterns," MPRA Paper 119296, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03613-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.