IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/guc/wpaper/47.html

Impact Of Climate Dynamics On Cyclical Properties Of Wine Production In Douro Region Using A Time-Frequency Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Cunha

    (Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto and Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais)

  • Christian Richter

    (Faculty of Management Technology, German University in Cairo)

Abstract

In this paper we model the impact of climate dynamics on wine production temporal cycles for the period 1933 to 2013 in the Douro wine region. We identify the cyclical properties of wine production and which cycles are de-termined by spring temperature and soil water levels during summer. We find that the in-season spring temperature as well as the temperatures of two and three years ago explain about 65% of the variability of wine pro-duction. When the soil water level in summer is incorporated, the R2 in-creases to 83% minimizing the Akaike criterion. The effects of soil water in wine production are depending on the timing. The in-season effect of an increase in soil water is negative, whilst soil water from two and three years ago have a positive effect on wine production. There is a stable but non- constant link between production and the spring temperature. The temper-ature is responsible for two long-medium cycles of 5.8 year and 4.2 years as well as a short one of 2.4 years that began since the 80s. The soil water level can explain 60% of the 7 years cycles of wine production as well as a short one of 2.3 years cycle which has been happening since the 90s. We also identify a shift of the relative importance away from temperature to soil water. Despite using a new an extended dataset, our results largely confirm the results of the impact of climate on the wine production in Douro region in our previous research. Modelling the impact of climate on the wine production can be an important instrument contributing for mitigation strategies facing the projected climate conditions in order to remain com-petitive in the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2018. "Impact Of Climate Dynamics On Cyclical Properties Of Wine Production In Douro Region Using A Time-Frequency Approach," Working Papers 47, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:guc:wpaper:47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://mgt.guc.edu.eg/wpapers/047Cunha_2018.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2018
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Moriondo & G. Jones & B. Bois & C. Dibari & R. Ferrise & G. Trombi & M. Bindi, 2013. "Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 825-839, August.
    2. J. Santos & S. Grätsch & M. Karremann & G. Jones & J. Pinto, 2013. "Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 211-225, March.
    3. Quiroga, Sonia & Iglesias, Ana, 2009. "A comparison of the climate risks of cereal, citrus, grapevine and olive production in Spain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(1-2), pages 91-100, June.
    4. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Is the US no longer the economy of first resort? Changing economic relationships in the Asia-Pacific region," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 207-234, July.
    5. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Has there been any structural convergence in the transmission of European monetary policies?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 85-101, July.
    6. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Economics in the Backyard: How Much Convergence is there between China and her Special Regions?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 819-861, June.
    7. Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2016. "The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 239-251, September.
    8. Linda F. Bisson & Andrew L. Waterhouse & Susan E. Ebeler & M. Andrew Walker & James T. Lapsley, 2002. "The present and future of the international wine industry," Nature, Nature, vol. 418(6898), pages 696-699, August.
    9. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May.
    10. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nith, Kosal & Ly, Singhong, 2018. "Reinvigorating Cambodian agriculture: Transforming from extensive to intensive agriculture," MPRA Paper 93091, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Dec 2018.
    2. Nith, Kosal & Ly, Singhong, 2018. "Reinvigorating Cambodian agriculture: Transforming from extensive to intensive agriculture," MPRA Paper 93086, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Dec 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mario Cunha, 2010. "Modelling the Cyclical Behaviour of Wine Production in the Douro Region Using a Time-Varying Parameters Approach," Working Papers 2010.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    2. Mario Cunha & Christian Richter, 2016. "The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 239-251, September.
    3. Bonfante, A. & Alfieri, S.M. & Albrizio, R. & Basile, A. & De Mascellis, R. & Gambuti, A. & Giorio, P. & Langella, G. & Manna, P. & Monaco, E. & Moio, L. & Terribile, F., 2017. "Evaluation of the effects of future climate change on grape quality through a physically based model application: a case study for the Aglianico grapevine in Campania region, Italy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 100-109.
    4. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Has there been any structural convergence in the transmission of European monetary policies?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 85-101, July.
    5. Mario CUNHA & Christian RICHTER, 2019. "Impact of climate dynamics on cyclical properties of wine production in Douro region using time-frequency approach," Journal of Economics Library, EconSciences Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 56-82, June.
    6. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Is the US no longer the economy of first resort? Changing economic relationships in the Asia-Pacific region," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 207-234, July.
    7. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    9. Burcu Kapar & William Pouliot, 2013. "Multiple Change-Point Detection in Linear Regression Models via U-Statistic Type Processes," Discussion Papers 13-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    10. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Zaman, Asad & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2010. "Tests for structural change, aggregation, and homogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1382-1391, November.
    11. Juan J. Cubillas & María I. Ramos & Juan M. Jurado & Francisco R. Feito, 2022. "A Machine Learning Model for Early Prediction of Crop Yield, Nested in a Web Application in the Cloud: A Case Study in an Olive Grove in Southern Spain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-26, August.
    12. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    13. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
    14. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2008. "Have the Eurozone economies converged on a common European cycle?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 71-101, July.
    15. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Petroulas, Pavlos & Spiliotopoulos, Vassilis & Tavlas, George S., 2020. "The effect of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) on bank lending during the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Xiao, Zhijie, 1999. "A residual based test for the null hypothesis of cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 133-141, August.
    17. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Housing and the Great Depression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2966-2981, August.
    18. Merih Uctum & Thom Thurston & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Public Debt, the Unit Root Hypothesis and Structural Breaks: A Multi‐Country Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(289), pages 129-156, February.
    19. Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1998. "Tests for changes in models with a polynomial trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 75-91, May.
    20. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2020. "Likelihood-based tests for parameter constancy in I(2) CVAR models with an application to fixed-term deposit data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:guc:wpaper:47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr.Dina Yousri (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fmguceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.