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A continuous spatio-temporal model for house prices in the USA

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  • Márcio Poletti Laurini

    () (FEARP-USP, CNPQ)

Abstract

Abstract We revisit the studies on the evolution of house prices in the USA using a spatio-temporal model estimated using a Bayesian method. This method introduces a new specification of an error correction model with random effects measured continuously in space. This model allows observing the deviations from the co-integration relationship in each analyzed location and a clearer interpretation of the house price dynamics between 1975 and 2011 for 381 metropolitan areas in the USA. The results indicate the presence of a housing price cycle, consistent with the patterns observed in the analyzed period.

Suggested Citation

  • Márcio Poletti Laurini, 2017. "A continuous spatio-temporal model for house prices in the USA," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(1), pages 235-269, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:58:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00168-016-0801-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-016-0801-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    2. Michela Cameletti & Finn Lindgren & Daniel Simpson & Håvard Rue, 2013. "Spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentration through the SPDE approach," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(2), pages 109-131, April.
    3. MÁrcio Poletti Laurini & Luiz Koodi Hotta, 2014. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 214-230, April.
    4. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2011. "Weak and strong cross‐section dependence and estimation of large panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 45-90, February.
    5. Håvard Rue & Sara Martino & Nicolas Chopin, 2009. "Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 319-392.
    6. Natalia Bailey & Sean Holly & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "A Two‐Stage Approach to Spatio‐Temporal Analysis with Strong and Weak Cross‐Sectional Dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 249-280, January.
    7. Badi H. Baltagi & Jing Li, 2014. "Further Evidence On The Spatio‐Temporal Model Of House Prices In The United States," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 515-522, April.
    8. Finn Lindgren & Håvard Rue & Johan Lindström, 2011. "An explicit link between Gaussian fields and Gaussian Markov random fields: the stochastic partial differential equation approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(4), pages 423-498, September.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    10. Lindgren, Finn & Rue, Håvard, 2015. "Bayesian Spatial Modelling with R-INLA," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 63(i19).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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