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Adjustment Dynamics of Bilateral Trade Flows: Theory and Evidence

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  • Benjamin Jung

Abstract

In this paper, I introduce a trade-promoting "invisible asset" into the standard Krugman (1980) model of international trade. It can be interpreted as trust that accumulates as an externality in proportion to successful international transactions. I use this framework to theoretically derive a dynamic gravity equation and to discuss adjustment dynamics. I provide new evidence on adjustment rates of bilateral trade flows. On average, 23% of the gap to the steady-state trade flow are closed each year. However, dynamic regressions yield long-run trade policy effects which are comparable to static estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Jung, 2009. "Adjustment Dynamics of Bilateral Trade Flows: Theory and Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(IV), pages 421-442, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2009-iv-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Benjamin, 2012. "Gradualism and dynamic trade adjustment: Revisiting the pro-trade effect of free trade agreements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 63-66.
    2. Pelayo Arbués & José F. Baños, 2016. "A dynamic approach to road freight flows modeling in Spain," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 549-564, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International bilateral trade; Gravity model; Trust; Dynamic panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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