Adjustment Dynamics of Bilateral Trade Flows: Theory and Evidence
In this paper, I introduce a trade-promoting "invisible asset" into the standard Krugman (1980) model of international trade. It can be interpreted as trust that accumulates as an externality in proportion to successful international transactions. I use this framework to theoretically derive a dynamic gravity equation and to discuss adjustment dynamics. I provide new evidence on adjustment rates of bilateral trade flows. On average, 23% of the gap to the steady-state trade flow are closed each year. However, dynamic regressions yield long-run trade policy effects which are comparable to static estimates.
Volume (Year): 145 (2009)
Issue (Month): IV (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: c/o SNB/BNS, Börsenstrasse 15, PO Box 2800, CH-8022 Zürich|
Phone: +41 (0)44 631 32 34
Fax: +41 (0)44 631 39 01
Web page: http://www.sjes.ch
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2007.
"Cultural Biases in Economic Exchange?,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2007/42, European University Institute.
- Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2004. "Cultural Biases in Economic Exchange," NBER Working Papers 11005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2005. "Cultural Biases in Economic Exchange," 2005 Meeting Papers 234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2005. "Cultural Biases in Economic Exchange," CEPR Discussion Papers 4837, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- McCleary, Rachel & Barro, Robert, 2003. "Religion and Economic Growth across Countries," Scholarly Articles 3708464, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Peter Egger, 2001.
"European exports and outward foreign direct investment: A dynamic panel data approach,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(3), pages 427-449, September.
- Peter Egger, . "European Exports and Outward Foreign Direct Investment. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," WIFO Working Papers 129, WIFO.
- Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Peter Egger & Patrick A. McLaughlin, 2008. "Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 461-497, 04.
- Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
- Paul Grauwe & Frauke Skudelny, 2000. "The impact of EMU on trade flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(3), pages 381-402, 09.
- Sebastian Krautheim, 2007. "Gravity and Information: Heterogeneous Firms, Exporter Networks and the 'Distance Puzzle'," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/51, European University Institute.
- James E. Rauch, 1996.
"Networks versus Markets in International Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
5617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bond, Stephen Roy & Hoeffler, Anke & Temple, Jonathan, 2001.
"GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3048, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007.
"The Euro's Effect on Trade on a Dynamic Setting,"
ISAE Working Papers
80, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
- Peter Egger & Valeria Merlo, 2007. "The Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on FDI Dynamics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(10), pages 1536-1549, October.
- Christoph Moser & Thorsten Nestmann & Michael Wedow, 2008.
"Political Risk and Export Promotion: Evidence from Germany,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 781-803, 06.
- Nestmann, Thorsten & Moser, Christoph & Wedow, Michael, 2006. "Political risk and export promotion: Evidence from Germany," Research Notes 23, Deutsche Bank Research.
- Moser, Christoph & Nestmann, Thorsten & Wedow, Michael, 2006. "Political risk and export promotion: evidence from Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,36, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Peter Egger, 2001. "European Integration in Trade and FDI: A Dynamic Perspective," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(2), pages 30-35, October.
- David Roodman, 2009.
"A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, 02.
- Marcus Scheiblecker & et al., 2003. "Austria's Economy in 2002: Another Year of Slow Growth," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 76(4), pages 257-323, April.
- Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December.
- Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007.
"Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
- Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004.
"Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
- Inmaculada Martínez Zarzoso & Felictas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Stephan Klasen & Mario Larch, 2008.
"Does German Development Aid Promote German Exports?,"
Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers
170, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
- Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Stephan Klasen & Mario Larch, 2009. "Does German Development Aid Promote German Exports?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 317-338, 08.
- Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Klasen, Stefan & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Does German Development Aid Promote German Exports?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 26, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- Luca De Benedictis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2004.
"Trade Potentials In Gravity Panel Data Models,"
ISAE Working Papers
44, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
- Robert J. Barro & Rachel McCleary, 2003. "Religion and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 2003.
"Determinants of Economic Growth in a Panel of Countries,"
Annals of Economics and Finance,
Society for AEF, vol. 4(2), pages 231-274, November.
- Robert J. Barro, 2003. "Determinants of Economic Growth in a Panel of Countries," CEMA Working Papers 505, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Richard Baldwin & Virginia DiNino & Lionel Fontagné & Roberto A. De Santis & Daria Taglioni, 2008. "Study on the Impact of the Euro on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 321, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Francesco Caselli & Gerardo Esquivel & Fernando Lefort, 1997.
"Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
03, Central Bank of Chile.
- Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
- Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003. "Economic Growth, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262025531.
- Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martín & Elsa V. Artadi, 2003. "Economic growth and investment in the Arab world," Economics Working Papers 683, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003.
"The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU,"
IDB Publications (Working Papers)
6511, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994.
"Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2009-iv-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Steiner)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.