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Match Fixing and Sports Betting in Football: Empirical Evidence from the German Bundesliga

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Deutscher
  • Eugen Dimant
  • Brad R. Humphreys
  • Adam Nowak

Abstract

Corrupt behavior by regulators occurs frequently and imposes costs on society. Corruption can take many forms and corrupt regulators try to hide their actions, making detection difficult. We use a unique data set to analyze variation in bet volume on Betfair, an online betting exchange, for evidence of abnormal patterns associated with specific regulators (referees) enforcing regulations in football matches. An analysis of betting on 1,251 Bundesliga 1 football matches over five seasons reveals evidence of systematically higher bet volume for two referees relative to matches officiated by all other referees, indirect evidence that corruption, in the form of match fixing, occurred. Results from a randomization experiment using Fischer exact p-values, a novel method for detecting corruption, confirm these results.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Deutscher & Eugen Dimant & Brad R. Humphreys & Adam Nowak, 2025. "Match Fixing and Sports Betting in Football: Empirical Evidence from the German Bundesliga," Public Finance Review, , vol. 53(5), pages 600-627, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:53:y:2025:i:5:p:600-627
    DOI: 10.1177/10911421251334175
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Cedric Gottschalk & Stefan Tewes & Benjamin Niestroj, 2020. "The Innovation of Refereeing in Football Through AI," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 35-54, June.
    3. Jerg Gutmann & Viola Lucas, 2018. "Private-Sector Corruption: Measurement and Cultural Origins," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(2), pages 747-770, July.
    4. Kwabena Donkor & Lorenz Goette & Maximilian Müller & Eugen Dimant & Michael Kurschilgen, 2023. "Identity and Economic Incentives," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 269, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    5. Christian Deutscher & Marius Ötting & Sandra Schneemann & Hendrik Scholten, 2019. "The Demand for English Premier League Soccer Betting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 556-579, May.
    6. Christoph Buehren & Tim Meyer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Forecaster (anti-) Herding in Sports Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202038, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

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