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What are the Preconditions for Turnarounds in Failing States?


  • Lisa Chauvet

    (IRD, DIAL Paris, France)

  • Paul Collier

    (Department of Economics Centre for the Study of African Economies Oxford University, Oxford, UK,


This paper analyzes the preconditions for sustained policy turnarounds in failing states. Our dependent variable is the probability of the commencement of a turnaround that eventually becomes both sustained and substantial. We focus upon the explanatory variables of resource rents, education, and aid, distinguishing between finance and technical assistance. Overall, we find that these variables have significant and large effects on the duration of state failure. Appropriate donor intervention can radically shorten state failure, whereas additional finance, whether from aid or resource rents, has the opposite effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Chauvet & Paul Collier, 2008. "What are the Preconditions for Turnarounds in Failing States?," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(4), pages 332-348, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:25:y:2008:i:4:p:332-348

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    Cited by:

    1. Graziella Bertocchi, 2011. "Growth, Colonization, and Institutional Development. In and Out of Africa," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 064, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    2. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Charles Patrick MartinShields, 2017. "Conflict and development: Recent research advances and future agendas," WIDER Working Paper Series 178, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Anthony J. Venables, 2016. "Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 161-184, Winter.
    4. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Quantifying economic recovery from the recent global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 87410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Anthony J. Venables, 2010. "Economic geography and African development," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 469-483, August.
    6. Guillaumont, Patrick & McGillivray, Mark & Wagner, Laurent, 2017. "Performance Assessment, Vulnerability, Human Capital, and the Allocation of Aid Among Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 17-26.
    7. Bergh, Andreas & Mirkina, Irina & Nilsson, Therese, 2013. "More Open – Better Governed? Evidence from High- and Low-income Countries," Working Paper Series 997, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.

    More about this item


    failing states; reform; aid;


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