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New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Saman, Corina

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy.)

  • Pauna, Bianca

    (National Institute of Economic Research, Center for Macroeconomic Modeling, Romanian Academy.)

Abstract

The paper aims to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips curve in the case of Romanian economy. The empirical model estimates simultaneously the potential output and the output gap; the natural rate of unemployment and the cyclical unemployment as an Okun Law type relationship; and the New Phillips curve linking inflation to output gap. We estimated two models that differed only in the assumption regarding the speed of adjustment of the cyclical unemployment to changes in output. The estimation results proved that the Phillips curve is not very different. It can be observed that the forwardlooking component of the NKPC is only marginally larger than the backward looking component in both specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Saman, Corina & Pauna, Bianca, 2013. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 159-171, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:2:p:159-171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2009. "Measuring the Interaction of Structural Changes with Inflation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(5), pages 5-99.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    3. Piotr Krajewski, 2017. "Heterogeneity of Households and the Effects of Fiscal Policy in the CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 79-93, June.
    4. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2018. "A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-20, December.
    5. Bianca PĂUNA & George GEORGESCU, 2021. "EU’s CAM and Potential GDP Estimates. Some Inconsistent Results in the Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-16, December.
    6. Rizwan Raheem AHMED & Dalia STREIMIKIENE & Saghir Pervaiz GHAURI & Muhammad AQIL, 2021. "Forecasting Inflation by Using the Sub-Groups of both CPI and WPI: Evidence from Auto Regression (AR) and ARIMA Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 144-161, June.
    7. Dorin Jula & Nicoleta Jula, 2017. "The Phillips Curve for the Romanian Economy, 1992-2017," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 36-48, June.
    8. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2021. "Potential Output: A Market Conditionalities Interpretation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-38, December.
    9. Lucian Croitoru, 2014. "Will there be Deflation and Current Account Surpluses?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-21, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian Phillips curve; Inflation; Potential output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

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