IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2013i2p159-171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Saman, Corina

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy.)

  • Pauna, Bianca

    (National Institute of Economic Research, Center for Macroeconomic Modeling, Romanian Academy.)

Abstract

The paper aims to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips curve in the case of Romanian economy. The empirical model estimates simultaneously the potential output and the output gap; the natural rate of unemployment and the cyclical unemployment as an Okun Law type relationship; and the New Phillips curve linking inflation to output gap. We estimated two models that differed only in the assumption regarding the speed of adjustment of the cyclical unemployment to changes in output. The estimation results proved that the Phillips curve is not very different. It can be observed that the forwardlooking component of the NKPC is only marginally larger than the backward looking component in both specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Saman, Corina & Pauna, Bianca, 2013. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 159-171, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:2:p:159-171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_13/rjef2_2013p159-171.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
    2. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2011. "Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2462-2468.
    3. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sbordone, Argia M., 2005. "Do expected future marginal costs drive inflation dynamics?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1183-1197, September.
    7. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2009. "Measuring the Interaction of Structural Changes with Inflation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(5), pages 5-99.
    8. John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2018. "A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-20, December.
    2. Jean-Louis Combes & Pierre Lesuisse, 2022. "Inflation and unemployment, new insights during the EMU accession," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 172, pages 124-142.
    3. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah & Florian Gerth, 2021. "Towards Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy Regime in Mauritius," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Piotr Krajewski, 2017. "Heterogeneity of Households and the Effects of Fiscal Policy in the CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 79-93, June.
    5. Bianca PĂUNA & George GEORGESCU, 2021. "EU’s CAM and Potential GDP Estimates. Some Inconsistent Results in the Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-16, December.
    6. Rizwan Raheem AHMED & Dalia STREIMIKIENE & Saghir Pervaiz GHAURI & Muhammad AQIL, 2021. "Forecasting Inflation by Using the Sub-Groups of both CPI and WPI: Evidence from Auto Regression (AR) and ARIMA Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 144-161, June.
    7. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2021. "Potential Output: A Market Conditionalities Interpretation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-38, December.
    8. Lucian Croitoru, 2014. "Will there be Deflation and Current Account Surpluses?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-21, October.
    9. Seyma Caliskan Cavdar & Alev Dilek Aydin, 2015. "A Different Perspective for Current Account Deficit Issue on Some OECD Member Countries: A Binary Panel Logit Approach," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(3), pages 14-22, September.
    10. Dorin Jula & Nicoleta Jula, 2017. "The Phillips Curve for the Romanian Economy, 1992-2017," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 36-48, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2011. "Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2462-2468.
    2. Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics: A Limited-Information Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    3. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2009. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 375-398, June.
    4. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Bratsiotis, George J. & Robinson, Wayne A., 2016. "Unit Total Costs: An Alternative Marginal Cost Proxy for Inflation Dynamics," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(7), pages 1826-1849.
    6. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Counties," Mechonomics mechonomics7, Socionet.
    7. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2008. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 627-666, June.
    8. Boug, Pål & Cappelen, Adne & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 2010. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 858-874, May.
    9. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
    10. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 099-115, August.
    11. Henzel, Steffen & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve and the role of expectations: Evidence from the CESifo World Economic Survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 811-832, September.
    12. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    13. Danny Hermawan & Denny Lie & Aryo Sasongko & Richard I. Yusan, 2023. "Money velocity, digital currency, and inflation dynamics," Working Papers 2023-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    14. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    15. Sardor Sadykov, 2018. "Modelling Of Inflationary Processes In Uzbekistan On The Basis Of The New Keynesian Philips Curve," Economics and Management, Faculty of Economics, SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY "NEOFIT RILSKI", BLAGOEVGRAD, vol. 14(2), pages 72-99.
    16. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    17. Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2011. "The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 317-337, April.
    18. repec:zbw:bofism:2005_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.
    20. Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.
    21. Luca Fanelli, 2008. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Through Vector Autoregressive Models: Results from the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 53-66, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian Phillips curve; Inflation; Potential output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:2:p:159-171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.