IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0026.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest Rate Risk Management Based on Copula-GARCH Models

Author

Listed:
  • Penikas, Henry

    () (Higher School of Economics, Russia)

  • Simakova, Varvara

    () (Higher School of Economics, Russia)

Abstract

The paper is aimed at making comparative analysis of main market risk features based on the copula-modeling and on the traditional approach which neglects the asymmetry and the fat tails of interest rates joint multivariate distribution. R software is used for practical implementation of the introduced methodology when dealing with copulas.Copula application makes it possible to reveal that the interest rates joint multivariate distribution is asymmetric, i.e. interest rates tend more frequently to rise simultaneously, than to decline. It is also shown that copulas help diminish the expected value of equity-at-risk breaches by 7–13% depending on the chosen confidence level

Suggested Citation

  • Penikas, Henry & Simakova, Varvara, 2009. "Interest Rate Risk Management Based on Copula-GARCH Models," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 13(1), pages 3-36.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2009_1_3-36.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dean Fantazzini, 2008. "Dynamic Copula Modelling for Value at Risk," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 5(2), pages 72-108, October.
    2. Chollete, Lorán & Heinen, Andreas, 2006. "Frequent Turbulence? A Dynamic Copula Approach," Discussion Papers 2006/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    3. Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Selecting copulas for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2405-2423, August.
    4. Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
    5. Markus Junker & Alexander Szimayer & Niklas Wagner, 2004. "Nonlinear Term Structure Dependence: Copula Functions, Empirics, and Risk Implications," Econometrics 0401007, EconWPA.
    6. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    7. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
    8. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    9. Thierry Ane & Cecile Kharoubi, 2003. "Dependence Structure and Risk Measure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 411-438, July.
    10. Junker, Markus & Szimayer, Alex & Wagner, Niklas, 2006. "Nonlinear term structure dependence: Copula functions, empirics, and risk implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1171-1199, April.
    11. De Pooter, Michiel & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information," MPRA Paper 2512, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Mar 2007.
    12. Robert T. Clemen & Terence Reilly, 1999. "Correlations and Copulas for Decision and Risk Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 208-224, February.
    13. François, LONGIN & Bruno, SOLNIK, 1998. "Correlation Structure of International Equity Markets During Extremely Volatile Periods," Les Cahiers de Recherche 646, HEC Paris.
    14. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    15. Fantazzini, Dean, 2008. "An Econometric Analysis of Financial Data in Risk Management," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 10(2), pages 91-137.
    16. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brodsky, Boris & Penikas, Henry & Safaryan, Irina, 2009. "Detection of Structural Breaks in Copula Models," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 16(4), pages 3-15.
    2. Penikas, Henry, 2014. "Investment portfolio risk modelling based on hierarchical copulas," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 35(3), pages 18-38.
    3. Aivazian, Sergei & Afanasiev, Mikhail & Rudenko, Victoria, 2014. "Analysis of dependence between the random components of a stochastic production function for the purpose of technical efficiency estimation," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 34(2), pages 3-18.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    copula; EVEaR; interest rate risk; Russia; MosPrime; OFZ; yield curve;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anatoly Peresetsky). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.